# Farm inputs – endeavouring for a new equilibrium

> Rabobank analyst Vitor Pistoia describes a two-year bull market in farm inputs that peaked after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when nitrogen, phosphate and potash reference prices jumped 48%, 32% and 37% in the first 30 days. Farmers cut fertilizer application as demand destruction set in, while Russian and Belarusian exports continued despite sanctions.

- Date: 2023-02-17 · published 2023-02-17T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/37259-farm-inputs-endeavouring-for-a-new-equilibrium
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

Demand destruction in fertilizer application can lower yields and crop output, while the ongoing export flows from Russia and Belarus shape nutrient supply and price direction.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bearish ▼
- UREA: bearish ▼
- POTASH: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2022-09-16 | [The Black Sea Grain Initiative: What it is, and why it’s important for the world \| UN News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14452-the-black-sea-grain-initiative-what-it-is-and-why-it-s-important-for-the-world.md) | -3.7% | -8.8% |
| UREA | 2026-10-05 | [Farmers Face A Fertilizer Market Full of Wild Cards - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17033-farmers-face-a-fertilizer-market-full-of-wild-cards-agweb.md) | -2.2% | -0.2% |
| UREA | 2026-07-24 | [WTO data confirms Strait of Hormuz fertilizer trade disruption is easing as urea nears pre-war price — Fertilizer Daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18655-wto-data-confirms-strait-of-hormuz-fertilizer-trade-disruption-is-easing-as.md) | +1.6% | -1.2% |
| UREA | 2024-05-03 | [Russia gains by turning natural gas into urea](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9422-russia-gains-by-turning-natural-gas-into-urea.md) | +1.0% | +1.5% |
| UREA | 2026-04-17 | [Fertilizer Prices Fall After Iran Says Strait Is Open - TT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20034-fertilizer-prices-fall-after-iran-says-strait-is-open-tt.md) | -2.7% | -17.7% |
| DAP | 2026-06-26 | [Fertilizer shipments begin exiting through Hormuz strait \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18704-fertilizer-shipments-begin-exiting-through-hormuz-strait-the-western-producer.md) | -4.2% | -0.0% |
| DAP | 2026-06-19 | [Morocco's OCP shifts to low-sulphur fertiliser, resumes full output](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19138-morocco-s-ocp-shifts-to-low-sulphur-fertiliser-resumes-full-output.md) | -4.2% | -1.9% |
| DAP | 2023-07-09 | [Norway challenges Morocco's position as top phosphate supplier](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35368-norway-challenges-morocco-s-position-as-top-phosphate-supplier.md) | -1.7% | +15.1% |

## Sources

- sfs.org.au: https://sfs.org.au/article/farm-inputs-endeavouring-for-a-new-equilibrium

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.