# Four possible consequences of El Niño returning in 2023

> A Priestley Centre blog says the equatorial Pacific is expected to return to neutral between March and May 2023 after three consecutive La Niña years. It adds that El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the northern autumn and winter. The piece frames ENSO as a driver of global precipitation and temperature patterns.

- Date: 2023-02-06 · published 2023-02-06T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/37247-four-possible-consequences-of-el-nino-returning-in-2023
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

A shift toward El Niño raises the risk of drought in parts of Asia, Australia and Southeast Asia later in 2023, which can tighten supplies of crops such as palm oil, grains and oilseeds. The price effect would depend on how strong the event becomes.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2017-03-01 | [Return of El Niño \| RNZ](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71914-return-of-el-nino-rnz.md) | -0.7% | -1.8% |
| CORN | 2023-02-13 | [Possible Extreme Outcomes for 2023 Cotton](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37248-possible-extreme-outcomes-for-2023-cotton.md) | -1.3% | -6.3% |
| CORN | 2026-05-21 | [What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19191-what-a-possible-2026-27-super-el-nino-means-for-commodity-markets.md) | -1.7% | -7.1% |
| CORN | 2017-04-18 | [IRI scientists weigh-in on the potential for El Niño’s return](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71437-iri-scientists-weigh-in-on-the-potential-for-el-nino-s-return.md) | -0.6% | +1.5% |
| CORN | 2026-02-12 | [US forecaster sees signs of La Nina shift towards El Nino conditions in early 2026 \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20517-us-forecaster-sees-signs-of-la-nina-shift-towards-el-nino-conditions-in-early.md) | -0.0% | +3.5% |
| SOY | 2017-03-01 | [Return of El Niño \| RNZ](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71914-return-of-el-nino-rnz.md) | -1.0% | -5.2% |
| SOY | 2023-02-13 | [Possible Extreme Outcomes for 2023 Cotton](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37248-possible-extreme-outcomes-for-2023-cotton.md) | -1.0% | -2.8% |
| SOY | 2026-05-21 | [What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19191-what-a-possible-2026-27-super-el-nino-means-for-commodity-markets.md) | -0.4% | -6.4% |

## Sources

- climate.leeds.ac.uk: https://climate.leeds.ac.uk/four-possible-consequences-of-el-nino-returning-in-2023/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.