# El Niño Watch calls for risk mitigation: StoneX - Grain Central

> StoneX says climate indicators and forecasts suggest Australia is unlikely to produce a fourth straight record wheat crop, with an El Niño Watch in place. ABARES forecasts new-crop US HRW wheat prices falling in real terms over the coming years.

- Date: 2023-03-20 · published 2023-03-20T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/36934-el-nino-watch-calls-for-risk-mitigation-stonex-grain-central
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller expected Australian crop under El Niño would reduce exportable wheat supply and support global wheat prices, though the wider market is still soft.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2019-12-10 | [Ag production falls for third year in row: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55533-ag-production-falls-for-third-year-in-row-abares-grain-central.md) | +2.5% | +3.5% |
| WHEAT | 2017-08-08 | [Wheat production forecast down: NAB - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69415-wheat-production-forecast-down-nab-grain-central.md) | +0.5% | -0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2022-09-20 | [Winter drought rolls into third La Niña for Argentina - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14008-winter-drought-rolls-into-third-la-nina-for-argentina-grain-central.md) | +0.4% | -9.0% |
| WHEAT | 2018-05-24 | [Feedgrain focus: Dry in NSW drains stored reserves - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65132-feedgrain-focus-dry-in-nsw-drains-stored-reserves-grain-central.md) | -0.8% | -2.2% |
| WHEAT | 2018-03-02 | [Wheat futures surge - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12430-wheat-futures-surge-grain-central.md) | +0.5% | -0.4% |

## Sources

- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/markets/non-us-exchanges-shape-up-amid-el-nino-watch/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.