# Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility | IFPRI

> An IFPRI blog post by Joseph Glauber says wheat price levels and volatility hit their highest since 2007/08 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Both have fallen back to pre-war levels over six months, but volatility remains elevated because global stocks are tight.

- Date: 2023-03-14 · published 2023-03-14T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/36895-assessing-tight-global-wheat-stocks-and-their-role-in-price-volatility-ifpri
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Tight global wheat stocks leave little cushion against production shortfalls, so feed buyers should expect continued sharp price swings. The analysis supports a risk premium in wheat even though spot prices have eased.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2016-08-14 | [Global prices, bumper crop, monsoon bring relief: Farm clouds begin to clear](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9954-global-prices-bumper-crop-monsoon-bring-relief-farm-clouds-begin-to-clear.md) | -0.3% | -2.5% |
| WHEAT | 2019-04-15 | [Grain commodities: Looking back and ahead - SA Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59715-grain-commodities-looking-back-and-ahead-sa-grain.md) | -2.0% | -12.7% |
| WHEAT | 2024-10-30 | [Argentina's Milei Taps Unseasonal Source in Search of Dollars: Shock Therapy \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28129-argentina-s-milei-taps-unseasonal-source-in-search-of-dollars-shock-therapy.md) | +0.1% | -1.8% |
| WHEAT | 2019-08-01 | [Gains in grains \| ANZ](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57536-gains-in-grains-anz.md) | -0.7% | -0.2% |
| WHEAT | 2020-07-17 | [Economic recovery hinges on virus control, consumer confidence \| Western Livestock Journal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52113-economic-recovery-hinges-on-virus-control-consumer-confidence-western-livestock.md) | +0.3% | -2.0% |

## Sources

- ifpri.org: https://www.ifpri.org/blog/assessing-tight-global-wheat-stocks-and-their-role-price-volatility/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.