# UPDATE 1-China's Pig Farms Battle New Surge in African Swine Fever

> A surge in African swine fever infections in China is expected to reduce hog output later this year, according to farm managers and analysts. Infections surged after the Lunar New Year, with positive detections in a single month reaching the full-year 2022 level. Analysts estimate infection rates in northern production areas may be near 50%.

- Date: 2023-03-15 · published 2023-03-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: disease · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/36847-update-1-china-s-pig-farms-battle-new-surge-in-african-swine-fever
- Commodities: [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A sharp fall in Chinese hog output would tighten pork supply and lift prices, but reduced herd size also lowers feed demand for corn and meal over time.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- HOGS: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| HOGS | 2019-03-28 | [African Swine Fever in China Helps Boost U.S. Hog Prices - Farm Policy News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60239-african-swine-fever-in-china-helps-boost-u-s-hog-prices-farm-policy-news.md) | +2.1% | +12.7% |
| HOGS | 2023-03-17 | [China’s Latest Battle With African Swine Fever to Push Up Pork Prices - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36846-china-s-latest-battle-with-african-swine-fever-to-push-up-pork-prices-bloomberg.md) | -3.8% | -9.2% |
| HOGS | 2018-11-09 | [China African Swine Fever: New Cases Reported Across Provinces](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61928-china-african-swine-fever-new-cases-reported-across-provinces.md) | -0.7% | -5.3% |
| HOGS | 2018-10-24 | [African swine fever hits Chinese pork industry in run-up to New Year \| China \| The Guardian](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62433-african-swine-fever-hits-chinese-pork-industry-in-run-up-to-new-year-china-the.md) | +3.1% | -0.5% |
| HOGS | 2019-03-29 | [Hog prices rise sharply in the U.S. after new data shows toll of African swine fever on China's herd](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60241-hog-prices-rise-sharply-in-the-u-s-after-new-data-shows-toll-of-african-swine.md) | +3.0% | +12.5% |
| CORN | 2023-03-17 | [China’s Latest Battle With African Swine Fever to Push Up Pork Prices - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36846-china-s-latest-battle-with-african-swine-fever-to-push-up-pork-prices-bloomberg.md) | -1.0% | +1.3% |
| CORN | 2018-09-06 | [China's vast pig market in lockdown as African swine fever spreads](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63014-china-s-vast-pig-market-in-lockdown-as-african-swine-fever-spreads.md) | -2.1% | +1.4% |
| CORN | 2021-07-12 | [African Swine Fever Persists in Parts of China - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45951-african-swine-fever-persists-in-parts-of-china-ukragroconsult.md) | -6.7% | -7.2% |

## Sources

- agriculture.com: https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/update-1-chinas-pig-farms-battle-new-surge-in-african-swine-fever

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.