# Black Sea Watch: Ukrainian grain flows climb amid safe passage confirmation

> Ukrainian grain flows through the Black Sea corridor rose in the week of March 13-19, with March daily average flows about 11% above February and shipment sizes nearing record levels. Market sources expect the Black Sea Grain Initiative extension to last 60 days rather than the previous 120, and the UN says the duration remains uncertain.

- Date: 2023-03-20 · published 2023-03-20T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: logistics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/36748-black-sea-watch-ukrainian-grain-flows-climb-amid-safe-passage-confirmation
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Ocean Grain Freight](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OCEANFRT.md)

## Why it matters

Higher corridor volumes add to near-term wheat, corn and barley supply and support Black Sea freight demand, but the shorter 60-day extension raises risk of supply disruption later in the year, which supports prices.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bearish ▼
- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- BARLEY: bearish ▼
- OCEANFRT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-03-20 | 1 | -3.2% | -3.1 | Rising Ukrainian corridor flows and confirmed safe passage on March 20 point to ample export supply, which is bearish for wheat. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2022-04-26 | [Ukrainian grains reach Romanian Black Sea port](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14495-ukrainian-grains-reach-romanian-black-sea-port.md) | -1.4% | +1.8% |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-22 | [First big grain ship leaves Ukraine's Black Sea port](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14359-first-big-grain-ship-leaves-ukraine-s-black-sea-port.md) | -1.5% | -1.0% |
| WHEAT | 2023-10-26 | [Ukraine says its Black Sea grain corridor is working \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14351-ukraine-says-its-black-sea-grain-corridor-is-working-reuters.md) | +2.2% | +1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2022-07-25 | [First Ukraine Black Sea grain shipments could move in days - U.N., Ukraine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14470-first-ukraine-black-sea-grain-shipments-could-move-in-days-u-n-ukraine.md) | -9.5% | -0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2024-03-04 | [Drewry - Maritime Research Opinions - Ukraine's flourishing grain exports amidst expired Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14315-drewry-maritime-research-opinions-ukraine-s-flourishing-grain-exports-amidst.md) | +7.2% | -0.4% |
| CORN | 2022-04-26 | [Ukrainian grains reach Romanian Black Sea port](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14495-ukrainian-grains-reach-romanian-black-sea-port.md) | -5.4% | -0.4% |
| CORN | 2022-04-29 | [First Ukrainian corn cargo leaves Romanian Black Sea port](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14492-first-ukrainian-corn-cargo-leaves-romanian-black-sea-port.md) | -7.1% | -3.2% |
| CORN | 2023-10-26 | [Ukraine says its Black Sea grain corridor is working \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14351-ukraine-says-its-black-sea-grain-corridor-is-working-reuters.md) | -3.5% | -3.6% |

## Sources

- spglobal.com: https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/032023-black-sea-watch-ukrainian-grain-flows-climb-amid-safe-passage-confirmation

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.