# April 2023 ENSO update: El Niño Watch

> NOAA's Climate.gov issued an El Niño Watch, saying there is a 62% chance of El Niño conditions in the May–July period. The March Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature was 0.2°C below average, which is neutral, and the atmosphere was near neutral.

- Date: 2023-05-01 · published 2023-05-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/36314-april-2023-enso-update-el-nino-watch
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A formal El Niño Watch raises odds of drought in Australia, Southeast Asia and parts of South America, which can support grain and oilseed prices through weather risk premium.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-08-26 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17828-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2026.md) | +5.4% | +8.5% |
| WHEAT | 2017-04-28 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, 28 April 2017 - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71424-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-28-april-2017-world-reliefweb.md) | +2.4% | +1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2019-04-01 | [March 2019 El Niño Update: Think spring](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60008-march-2019-el-nino-update-think-spring.md) | -5.3% | -8.2% |
| WHEAT | 2022-04-21 | [Weekly update - 21 April 2022 - DAFF](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41816-weekly-update-21-april-2022-daff.md) | +8.3% | +12.9% |
| WHEAT | 2024-06-01 | [May 2024 ENSO update: we’re 10!](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30148-may-2024-enso-update-we-re-10.md) | -5.6% | -12.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2020-08-01 | [July 2020 ENSO update: La Niña Watch!](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52034-july-2020-enso-update-la-nina-watch.md) | +9.8% | +8.6% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-08-26 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17828-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2026.md) | +5.4% | +1.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-04-28 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, 28 April 2017 - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71424-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-28-april-2017-world-reliefweb.md) | +0.7% | +4.0% |

## Sources

- climate.gov: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2023-enso-update-el-nino-watch?page=1

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.