# Forecasts start fast-tracking El Nino, though jury still out on 'super' event -Braun

> Reuters columnist Karen Braun says forecasts are increasingly pointing to an El Niño, with timing most pressing in the Southern Hemisphere, where wheat planting begins next month. Australia, usually dry during El Niño, is coming off three bumper wheat harvests, while Argentina is typically wet during the event.

- Date: 2023-04-14 · published 2023-04-14T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/36312-forecasts-start-fast-tracking-el-nino-though-jury-still-out-on-super-event-braun
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

An El Niño developing during Southern Hemisphere planting could cut Australian wheat output and shift South American crop conditions, supporting wheat and feed grain prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-01 | [Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34476-global-el-nino-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023-24.md) | +0.1% | +1.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-12-06 | [How long will the El Nino last? Latest official forecasts - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32486-how-long-will-the-el-nino-last-latest-official-forecasts-grain-price-news.md) | -3.5% | +1.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-06 | [From rice to palm oil, crop output forecasts for Asia-Pacific lower as El Nino strengthens \| The Straits Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33998-from-rice-to-palm-oil-crop-output-forecasts-for-asia-pacific-lower-as-el-nino.md) | +2.1% | -4.1% |
| WHEAT | 2019-03-15 | [El Nino Odds Favorable Through the Summer - ProAg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60009-el-nino-odds-favorable-through-the-summer-proag.md) | +2.9% | +1.4% |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-26 | [Unfavorable Ocean Combination Including Strong El Nino Dries Out Australia's Wheat Moisture Forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34003-unfavorable-ocean-combination-including-strong-el-nino-dries-out-australia-s.md) | -5.4% | -2.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-03-13 | [U.S. forecaster sees neutral weather conditions persisting through summer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25497-u-s-forecaster-sees-neutral-weather-conditions-persisting-through-summer.md) | +5.9% | +1.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-10-21 | [La Nina-Enhanced Drought Brings Slow Start to Winter Wheat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39024-la-nina-enhanced-drought-brings-slow-start-to-winter-wheat.md) | -1.8% | -1.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2023-02-14 | [Wheat prices are supported by forecasts of a reduced harvest next season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37374-wheat-prices-are-supported-by-forecasts-of-a-reduced-harvest-next-season.md) | -0.9% | -10.8% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/article/agriculture-weather-braun/forecasts-start-fast-tracking-el-nino-though-jury-still-out-on-super-event-braun-idUSKBN2WA1KY/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.