# Wheat Tour Sees Short Crop; Black Sea Grain Deal Prevents Rally

> The 2023 Hard Winter Wheat Tour confirmed a very short Kansas crop, with a projected 178 million bushels against a five-year average of 303 million. Prices nonetheless fell as the Black Sea Grain Initiative was extended, with July HRW futures losing $0.41 over the tour week.

- Date: 2023-05-18 · published 2023-05-18T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/36016-wheat-tour-sees-short-crop-black-sea-grain-deal-prevents-rally
- Commodities: [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A small HRW crop would normally lift prices, but Black Sea supply security is currently capping the rally, so buyers face a split market.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2018-05-18 | [GRAINS-U.S. wheat futures rally; corn, soy firm on hopes for export deal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10916-grains-u-s-wheat-futures-rally-corn-soy-firm-on-hopes-for-export-deal.md) | +5.8% | +0.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-03-18 | [CBOT wheat prices rise amid moisture shortage in the Black Sea region](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5627-cbot-wheat-prices-rise-amid-moisture-shortage-in-the-black-sea-region.md) | -4.5% | -8.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2024-12-06 | [Dire Russian crop health and Ukraine export risks threaten Black Sea wheat \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14243-dire-russian-crop-health-and-ukraine-export-risks-threaten-black-sea-wheat.md) | +1.9% | +3.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2024-05-22 | [Black Sea, Canadian wheat prices surge on weather, crop fears \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30289-black-sea-canadian-wheat-prices-surge-on-weather-crop-fears-s-and-p-global.md) | +2.6% | -15.6% |
| KWHEAT | 2020-05-05 | [UK to see smallest wheat crops in decades: Carr’s Flour monthly Wheat Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53057-uk-to-see-smallest-wheat-crops-in-decades-carr-s-flour-monthly-wheat-report.md) | +2.5% | -6.8% |
| WHEAT | 2022-12-06 | [Competitive Black Sea wheat pressuring prices, explained: Grain market daily \| AHDB](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38266-competitive-black-sea-wheat-pressuring-prices-explained-grain-market-daily-ahdb.md) | +9.9% | +9.2% |
| WHEAT | 2019-04-23 | [Wheat values driven by supply side - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59531-wheat-values-driven-by-supply-side-grain-central.md) | -4.2% | -0.6% |
| WHEAT | 2018-11-12 | [WA winter crop surges back to 15.653Mt - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61994-wa-winter-crop-surges-back-to-15-653mt-grain-central.md) | -0.2% | +0.8% |

## Sources

- uswheat.org: https://uswheat.org/wheatletter/2023-wheat-tour-sees-short-crop-black-sea-grain-deal-prevents-rally/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.