# The spectre of El Niño - Mecardo

> Mecardo reports Chicago soft red wheat near $345/t, about $200/t below a year earlier, after Black Sea corridor renegotiation pushed prices lower. Australian basis has rallied to over $40/t on dry conditions and a smaller expected crop, with the El Niño threat weighing on moisture outlooks.

- Date: 2023-05-30 · published 2023-05-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/35988-the-spectre-of-el-nino-mecardo
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Australian Dollar (USD per AUD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/AUDUSD.md)

## Why it matters

Dry Australian conditions tied to El Niño support Australian wheat prices relative to SRW, while Black Sea uncertainty keeps global wheat pressured.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- AUDUSD: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-01-31 | [Taking El Niño protection - Mecardo](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37823-taking-el-nino-protection-mecardo.md) | +2.2% | -4.4% |
| WHEAT | 2019-05-24 | [Strong El Niño this year appears unlikely](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59007-strong-el-nino-this-year-appears-unlikely.md) | -12.2% | -6.1% |
| WHEAT | 2021-05-13 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2021)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46985-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2021.md) | -1.8% | -4.6% |
| WHEAT | 2022-08-23 | [Wet weather masks for wheat - Mecardo](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40013-wet-weather-masks-for-wheat-mecardo.md) | +1.4% | +3.6% |
| WHEAT | 2024-03-21 | [El Niño's impact on U.S. Farmers \| American Ag Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31128-el-nino-s-impact-on-u-s-farmers-american-ag-network.md) | +0.9% | +2.4% |

## Sources

- mecardo.com.au: https://mecardo.com.au/the-spectre-of-el-nino/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.