# Lower-Than-Expected Winter Wheat Production Sends KC Wheat Futures Soaring

> USDA's May WASDE report surprised the market with lower-than-expected all-wheat production and ending stocks, sending Kansas City HRW wheat futures sharply higher. Old-crop corn exports were cut and 2023-24 corn production was set at a record 15.265 billion bushels, above trade estimates. Corn and soybean markets fell on lower old-crop demand and large new-crop estimates.

- Date: 2023-05-12 · published 2023-05-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/35885-lower-than-expected-winter-wheat-production-sends-kc-wheat-futures-soaring
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller US winter wheat crop tightens HRW supplies and supports wheat prices, while record new-crop corn and soybean output pressures feed grain prices lower over the coming year.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-05-12 | [Report Reaction \| Wheat futures surge after USDA pegs production well below trade expectations - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10791-report-reaction-wheat-futures-surge-after-usda-pegs-production-well-below-trade.md) | +2.0% | -3.2% |
| WHEAT | 2024-03-29 | [EU sees soft wheat production falling to four-year low in 2024/25](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31152-eu-sees-soft-wheat-production-falling-to-four-year-low-in-2024-25.md) | -1.3% | +1.9% |
| WHEAT | 2020-09-30 | [Corn, soy, wheat surge on lower-than-expected U.S. grain stocks \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8786-corn-soy-wheat-surge-on-lower-than-expected-u-s-grain-stocks-financial-post.md) | +2.5% | +4.6% |
| WHEAT | 2018-06-13 | [Wheat Prices Rally on Lower U.S. Winter Wheat Production Estimate - Northern Ag Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64483-wheat-prices-rally-on-lower-u-s-winter-wheat-production-estimate-northern-ag.md) | -2.0% | -8.2% |
| WHEAT | 2022-09-30 | [Hard Red Winter Wheat production lowest since 1957 - Oklahoma Farm Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39644-hard-red-winter-wheat-production-lowest-since-1957-oklahoma-farm-report.md) | +0.4% | -10.7% |
| SOY | 2023-11-10 | [Yield, Production and Stocks Increase Sends Corn and Soy Lower Following November WASDE](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33112-yield-production-and-stocks-increase-sends-corn-and-soy-lower-following.md) | +2.4% | -1.8% |
| SOY | 2019-02-08 | [Soybean Production Up in 2018, USDA Reports Winter Wheat Seedings and Grain Stocks also reported](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60450-soybean-production-up-in-2018-usda-reports-winter-wheat-seedings-and-grain.md) | -1.1% | -3.2% |
| SOY | 2023-07-12 | [Wheat, Soybean Carryover Larger Than Expected \| Red River Farm Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34983-wheat-soybean-carryover-larger-than-expected-red-river-farm-network.md) | -1.9% | -6.0% |

## Sources

- dtnpf.com: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2023/05/12/lower-expected-winter-wheat-sends-kc
- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/markets/new-crop-wheat-story-turns-bullish/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.