# May 2023 ENSO update: El Niño knocking on the door

> NOAA's May 2023 ENSO update said Pacific sea surface temperatures have warmed back above average, and an El Niño Watch remains in place. El Niño conditions are likely to develop within a couple of months and persist into winter with a greater than 90% chance.

- Date: 2023-06-01 · published 2023-06-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/35865-may-2023-enso-update-el-nino-knocking-on-the-door
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Confirmation of a likely El Niño raises the odds of dryness in Australia, Southeast Asia, India and parts of South America, which could cut crop output and lift feed grain and oilseed prices.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2020-05-28 | [El Niño / La Niña Update (May 2020)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53044-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2020.md) | +1.0% | +1.7% |
| CORN | 2024-06-01 | [May 2024 ENSO update: we’re 10!](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30148-may-2024-enso-update-we-re-10.md) | -1.6% | -6.0% |
| CORN | 2023-05-25 | [Drought Early Warning Update for the Midwest U.S. \| May 25, 2023 \| Drought.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13275-drought-early-warning-update-for-the-midwest-u-s-may-25-2023-drought-gov.md) | -4.4% | +1.4% |
| CORN | 2026-08-26 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17828-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2026.md) | +3.3% | +5.7% |
| CORN | 2022-05-12 | [May 2022 ENSO update: piece of cake \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41332-may-2022-enso-update-piece-of-cake-noaa-climate-gov.md) | -0.3% | -0.9% |
| SOY | 2025-06-01 | [May 2025 ENSO update: eye of neutral](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24585-may-2025-enso-update-eye-of-neutral.md) | +1.5% | -1.7% |
| SOY | 2023-05-18 | [Weekly update - 18 May 2023 - DAFF](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35904-weekly-update-18-may-2023-daff.md) | -0.9% | +6.8% |
| SOY | 2023-02-01 | [January 2023 La Niña update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37699-january-2023-la-nina-update-and-the-enso-blog-investigates-part-2.md) | -1.5% | -2.2% |

## Sources

- climate.gov: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2023-enso-update-el-nino-knocking-door

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.