# USD/BRL: Real to suffer if BCB postpones rate cuts due to ongoing criticism of the government – Commerzbank — Octa

> Commerzbank analysts said the Brazilian real fell sharply after central bank minutes sounded more dovish than the rate decision statement. They warned the real would weaken further if the central bank delayed rate cuts amid government criticism, while noting real rates above 9% still attract capital.

- Date: 2023-06-29 · published 2023-06-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/35696-usd-brl-real-to-suffer-if-bcb-postpones-rate-cuts-due-to-ongoing-criticism-of
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Currency weakness in Brazil makes its soybean and corn exports more competitive, while a delay in cuts would reverse that and support dollar-priced grain values.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2023-05-31 | [USD/BRL: Real weakness could hasten if government tries to influence monetary policy – Commerzbank: Analytics and Market news from 31 May 2023 14:41](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36148-usd-brl-real-weakness-could-hasten-if-government-tries-to-influence-monetary.md) | -3.0% | -4.3% |
| USDBRL | 2023-03-29 | [BCB remains on a collision course with the government, BRL at risk – Commerzbank: Analytics and Market news from 29 March 2023 13:55](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37064-bcb-remains-on-a-collision-course-with-the-government-brl-at-risk-commerzbank.md) | -1.5% | -2.1% |
| USDBRL | 2026-06-30 | [Brazilian Real: Rising rates signal currency risk – Commerzbank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19017-brazilian-real-rising-rates-signal-currency-risk-commerzbank.md) | -0.6% | -1.3% |
| USDBRL | 2021-02-23 | [USD/BRL: Brazilian real set to depreciate modestly versus the dollar over the next year – Capital Economics — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48849-usd-brl-brazilian-real-set-to-depreciate-modestly-versus-the-dollar-over-the.md) | +1.7% | +1.0% |
| USDBRL | 2017-04-12 | [Brazilian central bank likely to cut key rate by 100 bps, says Commerzbank \| EconoTimes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71708-brazilian-central-bank-likely-to-cut-key-rate-by-100-bps-says-commerzbank.md) | -1.5% | +1.2% |
| SOY | 2021-11-17 | [USD/BRL chops either side of 5.50 level as government forecast tweaks stink of staglation: Analytics and Market news from 17 листопада 2021 18:04](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44254-usd-brl-chops-either-side-of-5-50-level-as-government-forecast-tweaks-stink-of.md) | +1.7% | +0.9% |
| SOY | 2017-03-07 | [The correlation between USD and commodities is now gone: Citi](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71920-the-correlation-between-usd-and-commodities-is-now-gone-citi.md) | -3.0% | -8.6% |
| SOY | 2021-11-18 | [Brazil's Guedes says political 'noise' weakening real currency \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44255-brazil-s-guedes-says-political-noise-weakening-real-currency-financial-post.md) | -0.8% | +0.0% |

## Sources

- octaafrica.net: https://www.octaafrica.net/markets/news/view/1050365/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.