# Winter crop prediction for 2023-24 expands on dryer El Niño threat - Australasian Farmers' & Dealers' Journal

> Growers reportedly planted a near-record 23.5 million hectares for winter 2023-24 despite rising interest rates. ABARES forecasts winter crop output of 44.9 million tonnes, down 34%, citing below-average rainfall outlook for winter and spring.

- Date: 2023-06-05 · published 2023-06-05T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/35434-winter-crop-prediction-for-2023-24-expands-on-dryer-el-nino-threat-australasian
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Large planted area partly offsets yield risk, but a 34% production drop still tightens Australian export supply and supports grain prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-08 | [Winter crop plantings for 2023-24 at all-time record but harvest levels a perceived risk - Australasian Farmers' & Dealers' Journal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35010-winter-crop-plantings-for-2023-24-at-all-time-record-but-harvest-levels-a.md) | -1.9% | +0.3% |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-01 | [Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34476-global-el-nino-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023-24.md) | +0.1% | +1.1% |
| WHEAT | 2017-09-12 | [Forecast decrease for winter crop production: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68910-forecast-decrease-for-winter-crop-production-abares-grain-central.md) | +1.0% | +4.5% |
| WHEAT | 2023-02-23 | [El Niño expected to bring “normal” wheat crop in Australia - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37301-el-nino-expected-to-bring-normal-wheat-crop-in-australia-fastmarkets.md) | -3.0% | -8.7% |
| WHEAT | 2026-09-04 | [El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17395-el-nino-drives-crop-failure-in-central-america-and-east-africa-and-threatens.md) | +1.4% | +0.4% |

## Sources

- afdj.com.au: https://afdj.com.au/winter-crop-prediction-for-2023-24-expand-on-dryer-el-nino-threat/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.