# ABARES forecasts agricultural production to fall by 14 per cent to reach $79 billion in 2023–24 - ABC News

> ABARES forecasts Australian agricultural production to fall 14% to A$79 billion in 2023-24, with crop production down 34% to 44.9 million tonnes. Export earnings are forecast to drop 17%, and the outlook reflects the end of La Niña and expected El Niño conditions.

- Date: 2023-06-05 · published 2023-06-05T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/35409-abares-forecasts-agricultural-production-to-fall-by-14-per-cent-to-reach-79
- Commodities: [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Canola Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CANMEAL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A one-third drop in Australian crop output would significantly reduce grain exports and tighten global wheat and barley supplies, supporting feed grain prices. The forecast gives buyers a clear signal to expect higher Australian-origin grain costs.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲
- CANMEAL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2018-09-11 | [Drought bites in the east as ABARES forecasts 12pc cut to grain production - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62980-drought-bites-in-the-east-as-abares-forecasts-12pc-cut-to-grain-production-abc.md) | -7.4% | -7.0% |
| WHEAT | 2018-07-02 | [Cereal production in EU forecast to fall by 6% in 2018 \| AGENCE EUROPE](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63982-cereal-production-in-eu-forecast-to-fall-by-6-in-2018-agence-europe.md) | -5.5% | -1.6% |
| WHEAT | 2019-12-02 | [ABARES crop report forecasts winter production slump for third year in a row - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55529-abares-crop-report-forecasts-winter-production-slump-for-third-year-in-a-row.md) | -0.7% | -1.9% |
| WHEAT | 2018-03-05 | [Weather to blame for falling farmer incomes and production, commodity forecaster ABARES says - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65949-weather-to-blame-for-falling-farmer-incomes-and-production-commodity-forecaster.md) | +0.8% | +0.6% |
| WHEAT | 2019-12-10 | [Ag production falls for third year in row: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55533-ag-production-falls-for-third-year-in-row-abares-grain-central.md) | +2.5% | +3.5% |

## Sources

- abc.net.au: https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-06-06/abares-2023-24-outlook-says-14-per-cent-fall-in-production/102444184
- dtnpf.com: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/canada-markets/blog-post/2023/06/06/australias-abares-estimates-2023-24
- farmonline.com.au: https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/8223377/boom-time-over-as-crop-production-set-to-return-to-normal/
- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/news/abares-releases-initial-wheat-barley-canola-estimates/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.