# FACTBOX: Mapping El Nino's impact on crop yields, global food trade in 2023-24

> S&P Global published a factbox mapping how El Niño may affect crop yields and global food trade in 2023-24. It highlights expected Australian wheat output of 26.2 million mt, down 33.9% on the year, and above-average Argentine rains that could lift yields.

- Date: 2023-06-16 · published 2023-06-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/35405-factbox-mapping-el-nino-s-impact-on-crop-yields-global-food-trade-in-2023-24
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

Lower Australian wheat supply would tighten global wheat availability and support prices, while stronger Argentine output would partly offset that. Feed buyers should expect firmer wheat and barley costs if the dryness materializes.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-27 | [INFOGRAPHIC: El Niño may lead to global food supply volatility in 2026-27 \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18244-infographic-el-nino-may-lead-to-global-food-supply-volatility-in-2026-27-s-and.md) | -2.4% | +2.9% |
| WHEAT | 2022-07-13 | [NSW big wet to be an X-factor in national crop yields \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40445-nsw-big-wet-to-be-an-x-factor-in-national-crop-yields-farm-online-act.md) | +8.2% | +8.0% |
| WHEAT | 2022-10-10 | [If El Nino Appears Later 2023, How Will Global Precipitation Patterns Change? - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39023-if-el-nino-appears-later-2023-how-will-global-precipitation-patterns-change.md) | -14.4% | -16.2% |
| WHEAT | 2026-10-09 | [El Nino strengthens in Pacific, may persist into Jan-March 2027: NOAA \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17052-el-nino-strengthens-in-pacific-may-persist-into-jan-march-2027-noaa-s-and-p.md) | +4.0% | +4.0% |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-01 | [Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34476-global-el-nino-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023-24.md) | +0.1% | +1.1% |
| SOY | 2025-04-21 | [El Nino shift: Impact on crop futures and global agricultural outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25021-el-nino-shift-impact-on-crop-futures-and-global-agricultural-outlook.md) | +1.3% | +1.3% |
| SOY | 2022-10-10 | [If El Nino Appears Later 2023, How Will Global Precipitation Patterns Change? - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39023-if-el-nino-appears-later-2023-how-will-global-precipitation-patterns-change.md) | +1.2% | +6.2% |
| SOY | 2023-09-01 | [Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34476-global-el-nino-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023-24.md) | -0.8% | -6.2% |

## Sources

- spglobal.com: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/061523-factbox-mapping-el-ninos-impact-on-crop-yields-global-food-trade-in-2023-24

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.