# Palm oil price trends – The effect of extreme weather - Fastmarkets

> Fastmarkets reviews palm oil price trends under climate change, noting NOAA declared the transition from La Niña to El Niño on June 8. It expects a moderate-to-strong El Niño to affect Southeast Asian rainfall, with the key risk period late autumn to early winter. Malaysian output was weak early in 2023, with April the lowest since 2006.

- Date: 2023-07-11 · published 2023-07-11T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Southeast Asia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/35142-palm-oil-price-trends-the-effect-of-extreme-weather-fastmarkets
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

El Niño-driven drought in Malaysia and Indonesia would cut palm oil yields and tighten supply into 2024. Markets are likely to price in this risk ahead of the critical late-year weather window.

## Read by commodity

- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2023-06-27 | [Palm oil will rise in price in the second half of the year – forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35580-palm-oil-will-rise-in-price-in-the-second-half-of-the-year-forecast.md) | +12.1% | +13.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2020-07-23 | [Palm oil tracks soyoil fall, wet weather stokes supply concerns - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52203-palm-oil-tracks-soyoil-fall-wet-weather-stokes-supply-concerns-markets-business.md) | +0.2% | +9.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2022-02-17 | [Why is the price of vegetable oil surging? - Marketplace](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8759-why-is-the-price-of-vegetable-oil-surging-marketplace.md) | +4.5% | +13.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2025-06-04 | [Global Vegetable Oil Markets Face Tariff, Weather Turbulence](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10951-global-vegetable-oil-markets-face-tariff-weather-turbulence.md) | -1.0% | +4.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-10-08 | [Palm Oil Traders Eye Price Rally as Weather and Policy Risks Tighten Supply Outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17176-palm-oil-traders-eye-price-rally-as-weather-and-policy-risks-tighten-supply.md) | +0.5% | -0.2% |

## Sources

- fastmarkets.com: https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/palm-oil-price-trends/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.