# A Black Sea Recap - Mecardo

> A Mecardo analysis dated July 25, 2023 reviews Russian and Ukrainian wheat export shares, which together accounted for 27% of global exports last year. It notes that Russian attacks on ports and ships drove a three-day rally in CME SRW, which then eased as the market became less concerned.

- Date: 2023-07-25 · published 2023-07-25T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/35105-a-black-sea-recap-mecardo
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Russia and Ukraine supply a large share of world wheat trade, so even small shipping disruptions move prices. The waning concern suggests the risk premium may be fading unless attacks resume.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2023-08-03 | 5 | -12.1% | -3.0 | Notes the three-day rally on port attacks faded as the market became less worried about Black Sea disruption, consistent with the premium unwinding. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-08-31 | [Wheat: Black Sea risks are driving up wheat prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17937-wheat-black-sea-risks-are-driving-up-wheat-prices.md) | +2.2% | +6.1% |
| WHEAT | 2022-10-29 | ['Massive' drone attack on Black Sea Fleet - Russia - BBC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14449-massive-drone-attack-on-black-sea-fleet-russia-bbc-news.md) | -5.6% | +2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2022-01-25 | [Frost risk remains for Black Sea crops: Grain market daily \| AHDB](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43080-frost-risk-remains-for-black-sea-crops-grain-market-daily-ahdb.md) | -2.1% | -0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-17 | [Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7057-black-sea-grain-deal-expires-after-russia-quits-reuters.md) | +2.4% | +2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2023-05-05 | [Black Sea tensions keep grain prices afloat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7385-black-sea-tensions-keep-grain-prices-afloat.md) | -1.9% | -5.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-08-31 | [Wheat: Black Sea risks are driving up wheat prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17937-wheat-black-sea-risks-are-driving-up-wheat-prices.md) | -5.0% | -9.9% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-01-25 | [Frost risk remains for Black Sea crops: Grain market daily \| AHDB](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43080-frost-risk-remains-for-black-sea-crops-grain-market-daily-ahdb.md) | -4.5% | +7.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2023-07-17 | [Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7057-black-sea-grain-deal-expires-after-russia-quits-reuters.md) | +6.3% | -6.6% |

## Sources

- mecardo.com.au: https://mecardo.com.au/a-black-sea-recap/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.