# Australia Wheat Crop Headed for Double-Digit Decline, Gro Model Predicts

> Gro's machine-learning model predicts Australia's 2023/24 wheat production will fall by double digits from last year. ABARES has forecast a 34% decline, partly due to an expected El Niño. Gro's model does not yet include El Niño effects and shows past events had mixed impacts on Australian wheat.

- Date: 2023-07-28 · published 2023-07-28T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/35014-australia-wheat-crop-headed-for-double-digit-decline-gro-model-predicts
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Australia is a major wheat exporter, so a large crop shortfall would tighten supplies for importers such as Indonesia, Vietnam and China. The 34% ABARES forecast is a large downside risk for world wheat prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-28 | [Australia forecasts 34% decline in wheat production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35012-australia-forecasts-34-decline-in-wheat-production.md) | -0.1% | -2.1% |
| WHEAT | 2018-08-01 | [South Australia predicts reduced wheat crop of 3.95Mt - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63506-south-australia-predicts-reduced-wheat-crop-of-3-95mt-grain-central.md) | +3.6% | +1.0% |
| WHEAT | 2017-04-18 | [Australia’s wheat crop expected to fall](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71460-australia-s-wheat-crop-expected-to-fall.md) | +1.0% | -0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2022-07-28 | [How big will Western Australia's wheat crop be? - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40444-how-big-will-western-australia-s-wheat-crop-be-grain-price-news.md) | +4.6% | +0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2025-07-14 | [Western Australia’s Wheat Decline Presents Golden Opportunities in Barley and Canola](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23722-western-australia-s-wheat-decline-presents-golden-opportunities-in-barley-and.md) | -1.6% | -2.0% |

## Sources

- ukragroconsult.com: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/australia-wheat-crop-headed-for-double-digit-decline-gro-model-predicts/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.