# Australia forecasts 34% decline in wheat production

> Gro's machine-learning model predicts Australia's 2023/24 wheat production will fall by double digits from last year. ABARES has forecast a 34% decline, partly due to an expected El Niño. Gro's model does not yet include El Niño effects and shows past events had mixed impacts on Australian wheat.

- Date: 2023-07-28 · published 2023-07-28T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/35012-australia-forecasts-34-decline-in-wheat-production
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Australia is a major wheat exporter, so a large crop shortfall would tighten supplies for importers such as Indonesia, Vietnam and China. The 34% ABARES forecast is a large downside risk for world wheat prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2025-04-02 | [Analysts forecast a decrease in wheat production in Australia in the new season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25087-analysts-forecast-a-decrease-in-wheat-production-in-australia-in-the-new-season.md) | -0.8% | +1.9% |
| WHEAT | 2018-06-13 | [Australia cuts wheat production forecast \| World-grain.com \| June 12, 2018 20:28 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64493-australia-cuts-wheat-production-forecast-world-grain-com-june-12-2018-20-28.md) | -2.0% | -8.2% |
| WHEAT | 2017-08-08 | [Wheat production forecast down: NAB - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69415-wheat-production-forecast-down-nab-grain-central.md) | +0.5% | -0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2023-08-30 | [Australian wheat prices improve as expected production declines. \| Farm Weekly \| WA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34522-australian-wheat-prices-improve-as-expected-production-declines-farm-weekly-wa.md) | +0.2% | +1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2018-06-19 | [Wheat production forecasts diminishing \| The Land \| NSW](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64495-wheat-production-forecasts-diminishing-the-land-nsw.md) | -0.7% | -3.1% |

## Sources

- ukragroconsult.com: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/australia-forecasts-34-decline-in-wheat-production/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.