# How will El Nino impact the world’s wheat and global food supply - The University of Sydney

> An University of Sydney analysis says the WMO has declared the first El Niño in seven years, with 90% odds of developing in 2023 at moderate strength. It notes that past El Niño events have produced relatively modest and ambiguous global food price impacts, while local effects could be severe.

- Date: 2023-07-18 · published 2023-07-18T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/34968-how-will-el-nino-impact-the-world-s-wheat-and-global-food-supply-the-university
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Past El Niño events have rarely caused breadbasket-wide yield shocks, so wheat prices are unlikely to move much on this event alone. Concentrated regional crop losses remain a risk that could support prices in affected exporters.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-13 | [What this year’s El Niño means for wheat and global food supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34965-what-this-year-s-el-nino-means-for-wheat-and-global-food-supply.md) | +3.7% | +3.6% |
| WHEAT | 2024-07-01 | [El Niño and La Niña: Impact on Global Agriculture and What to Expect Next](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29665-el-nino-and-la-nina-impact-on-global-agriculture-and-what-to-expect-next.md) | +6.6% | -1.3% |
| WHEAT | 2020-05-08 | [National wheat yield forecast predicts spatially variable season - Queensland Alliance for 
Agriculture and Food Innovation - University of Queensland](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53075-national-wheat-yield-forecast-predicts-spatially-variable-season-queensland.md) | -2.3% | -0.9% |
| WHEAT | 2018-04-05 | [Weather phenomena like El Nino affect up to two-thirds of world's harvests - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65445-weather-phenomena-like-el-nino-affect-up-to-two-thirds-of-world-s-harvests.md) | +0.6% | +6.9% |
| WHEAT | 2017-03-14 | [Weak El Nino to have small impact on Asian crops this year \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71913-weak-el-nino-to-have-small-impact-on-asian-crops-this-year-the-star.md) | -1.6% | +0.9% |

## Sources

- sydney.edu.au: https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2023/07/18/how-will-el-nino-impact-the-world-s-wheat-and-global-food-supply.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.