# Malaysia forecasts peak of El Niño to hit in early 2024

> Early hot, dry weather linked to El Niño is threatening food output across Asia, according to analysts. Palm oil and rice production in Indonesia and Malaysia, which together supply about 80% of world palm oil, along with Thailand, are likely to suffer. Water stress in Sabah estates is already cutting yields.

- Date: 2023-07-07 · published 2023-07-07T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Malaysia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/34966-malaysia-forecasts-peak-of-el-nino-to-hit-in-early-2024
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

Palm oil supply from Indonesia and Malaysia is concentrated, so El Niño-driven yield losses could tighten global vegetable oil supply and lift prices. Lower rice output in Southeast Asia would add to upward pressure on rice prices.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2023-11-23 | [El Nino poses risk to 2024 palm oil output in Indonesia, Malaysia - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33277-el-nino-poses-risk-to-2024-palm-oil-output-in-indonesia-malaysia-the.md) | -0.7% | -3.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-04-13 | [IMD Forecasts Below Normal South West Monsoon Rainfall in 2026, El Niño to Impact India’s Kharif Season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19635-imd-forecasts-below-normal-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-in-2026-el-nino-to.md) | -1.0% | -0.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-01 | [Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34476-global-el-nino-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023-24.md) | -4.5% | -7.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-11-30 | [El Niño ahead: Potential disruption to fishmeal supply in 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33069-el-nino-ahead-potential-disruption-to-fishmeal-supply-in-2024.md) | -2.6% | -2.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-07-27 | [INFOGRAPHIC: El Niño may lead to global food supply volatility in 2026-27 \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18244-infographic-el-nino-may-lead-to-global-food-supply-volatility-in-2026-27-s-and.md) | -0.2% | +4.8% |
| RICE | 2026-04-13 | [IMD Forecasts Below Normal South West Monsoon Rainfall in 2026, El Niño to Impact India’s Kharif Season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19635-imd-forecasts-below-normal-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-in-2026-el-nino-to.md) | +2.8% | +9.5% |
| RICE | 2023-09-01 | [Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34476-global-el-nino-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023-24.md) | -4.1% | -5.2% |
| RICE | 2024-02-19 | [The El Niño weather pattern shapes 2024 commodity price forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31589-the-el-nino-weather-pattern-shapes-2024-commodity-price-forecast.md) | -0.2% | -3.0% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/malaysia-forecasts-peak-el-nio-hit-early-2024-2023-07-07/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.