# Fertilizer Producers Sector Update - Black Sea Grain Initiative termination boosting urea prices - Vietcap

> Vietcap maintains a 2023-2025 average Middle East urea forecast of $350/t and says H2 2023 prices should be about 5% above H1. It cites the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and India's rice export ban as drivers that could lift grain and rice prices. The firm expects the upside to fade from 2024.

- Date: 2023-08-17 · published 2023-08-17T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/34901-fertilizer-producers-sector-update-black-sea-grain-initiative-termination
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Expected higher grain and rice prices in H2 2023 support fertilizer cost forecasts and point to firmer feed grain values in the near term.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2023-08-01 | [Update from the Office of the UN Coordinator for the Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14376-update-from-the-office-of-the-un-coordinator-for-the-black-sea-grain-initiative.md) | -2.3% | -2.8% |
| CORN | 2023-07-01 | [Operational update from the Office of the UN Coordinator for the Black sea Grain Initiative, 15 JULY 2023 \| The United Nations Office at Geneva](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14380-operational-update-from-the-office-of-the-un-coordinator-for-the-black-sea.md) | +1.4% | -5.6% |
| CORN | 2023-02-27 | [Ukraine seeks changes to the Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14418-ukraine-seeks-changes-to-the-black-sea-grain-initiative.md) | -1.3% | -1.8% |
| CORN | 2023-11-14 | [The Black Sea Grain Initiative: What was achieved? Why was it important? \| United Nations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14347-the-black-sea-grain-initiative-what-was-achieved-why-was-it-important-united.md) | -0.7% | -2.2% |
| CORN | 2023-05-05 | [Black Sea tensions keep grain prices afloat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7385-black-sea-tensions-keep-grain-prices-afloat.md) | -0.2% | -7.5% |
| WHEAT | 2023-08-01 | [Update from the Office of the UN Coordinator for the Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14376-update-from-the-office-of-the-un-coordinator-for-the-black-sea-grain-initiative.md) | +0.4% | -7.2% |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-01 | [Operational update from the Office of the UN Coordinator for the Black sea Grain Initiative, 15 JULY 2023 \| The United Nations Office at Geneva](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14380-operational-update-from-the-office-of-the-un-coordinator-for-the-black-sea.md) | -9.9% | -6.9% |
| WHEAT | 2023-02-27 | [Ukraine seeks changes to the Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14418-ukraine-seeks-changes-to-the-black-sea-grain-initiative.md) | -2.4% | -7.4% |

## Sources

- vietcap.com.vn: https://www.vietcap.com.vn/en/research-center/fertilizer-producers-sector-update-black-sea-grain-initiative-termination-boosting-urea-prices

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.