# Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24

> Mintec's August ENSO update points to a Very Strong El Nino peaking in December at about +2.3C, up from +1.99C in July. It compares the event with 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16 to assess commodity impacts.

- Date: 2023-09-01 · published 2023-09-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/34476-global-el-nino-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023-24
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A stronger forecast El Nino raises the probability of major yield losses in Asian rice, palm oil and Australian grains, supporting forward prices for those commodities.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2026-04-24 | [Forecast for strong El Niño fans worries about global crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19633-forecast-for-strong-el-nino-fans-worries-about-global-crops.md) | -2.0% | +18.1% |
| RICE | 2023-07-07 | [Malaysia forecasts peak of El Niño to hit in early 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34966-malaysia-forecasts-peak-of-el-nino-to-hit-in-early-2024.md) | +1.4% | -13.7% |
| RICE | 2026-04-09 | [Rising Odds of Strong El Niño Point to Global Weather and Crop Impacts - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19631-rising-odds-of-strong-el-nino-point-to-global-weather-and-crop-impacts-bloomberg.md) | -1.4% | +6.9% |
| RICE | 2024-02-19 | [The El Niño weather pattern shapes 2024 commodity price forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31589-the-el-nino-weather-pattern-shapes-2024-commodity-price-forecast.md) | -0.2% | -3.0% |
| RICE | 2023-06-16 | [FACTBOX: Mapping El Nino's impact on crop yields, global food trade in 2023-24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35405-factbox-mapping-el-nino-s-impact-on-crop-yields-global-food-trade-in-2023-24.md) | -0.2% | -13.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-04-24 | [Forecast for strong El Niño fans worries about global crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19633-forecast-for-strong-el-nino-fans-worries-about-global-crops.md) | -0.0% | -1.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-07-07 | [Malaysia forecasts peak of El Niño to hit in early 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34966-malaysia-forecasts-peak-of-el-nino-to-hit-in-early-2024.md) | -0.1% | +0.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-06-16 | [FACTBOX: Mapping El Nino's impact on crop yields, global food trade in 2023-24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35405-factbox-mapping-el-nino-s-impact-on-crop-yields-global-food-trade-in-2023-24.md) | +1.8% | +14.5% |

## Sources

- mintecglobal.com: https://www.mintecglobal.com/top-stories/global-el-ni%C3%B1o-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023/24

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.