# Unfavorable Ocean Combination Including Strong El Nino Dries Out Australia's Wheat Moisture Forecast

> DTN reports that Australia's 2023-24 wheat crop faces much lower soil moisture as El Niño dries key production areas. USDA cut its Australian wheat estimate by 3 million tons to 26 million in September, a decline of more than 10%.

- Date: 2023-09-26 · published 2023-09-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/34003-unfavorable-ocean-combination-including-strong-el-nino-dries-out-australia-s
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

A more than 10% cut in Australian wheat output removes a major exporter's supply and supports global wheat prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2022-08-11 | [Continued La Nina Unfavorable for Wheat Seeding Moisture](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39964-continued-la-nina-unfavorable-for-wheat-seeding-moisture.md) | -1.3% | -11.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-04-27 | [El Nino May Boost Soil Moisture in May for South American Wheat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36317-el-nino-may-boost-soil-moisture-in-may-for-south-american-wheat.md) | +1.1% | -2.6% |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-28 | [Australia forecasts 34% decline in wheat production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35012-australia-forecasts-34-decline-in-wheat-production.md) | -0.1% | -2.1% |
| WHEAT | 2025-04-02 | [Analysts forecast a decrease in wheat production in Australia in the new season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25087-analysts-forecast-a-decrease-in-wheat-production-in-australia-in-the-new-season.md) | -0.8% | +1.9% |
| WHEAT | 2026-04-24 | [Forecast for strong El Niño fans worries about global crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19633-forecast-for-strong-el-nino-fans-worries-about-global-crops.md) | +0.2% | +1.4% |

## Sources

- dtnpf.com: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/ag-weather-forum/blog-post/2023/09/26/unfavorable-ocean-combination-strong

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.