# Risks to global food commodity prices from El Niño

> The ECB Economic Bulletin says an El Niño is almost certain to emerge in late 2023, with a 99% probability, and a 66% chance it will be strong. The article examines how it could affect global food supplies and prices.

- Date: 2023-09-28 · published 2023-09-28T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/33997-risks-to-global-food-commodity-prices-from-el-nino
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

A strong El Niño typically cuts output in Asia, Australia and parts of the Americas, tightening grain, oilseed and rice supplies and supporting prices into 2024.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2025-03-25 | [Global corn stocks low and falling - prices to rise](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25595-global-corn-stocks-low-and-falling-prices-to-rise.md) | -1.5% | +3.1% |
| CORN | 2024-02-19 | [The El Niño weather pattern shapes 2024 commodity price forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31589-the-el-nino-weather-pattern-shapes-2024-commodity-price-forecast.md) | -0.3% | +7.1% |
| CORN | 2026-10-08 | [El Niño raises risks for agricultural commodities in the 4th quarter - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17054-el-nino-raises-risks-for-agricultural-commodities-in-the-4th-quarter-revista.md) | -2.4% | -5.9% |
| CORN | 2023-11-01 | [El Niño's Rain Games: A Global Hunger Crisis?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33099-el-nino-s-rain-games-a-global-hunger-crisis.md) | -0.1% | -4.0% |
| CORN | 2024-04-24 | [NASA SVS \| El Niño Forecast to Contribute to Food Insecurity](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30653-nasa-svs-el-nino-forecast-to-contribute-to-food-insecurity.md) | -0.5% | +3.3% |
| SOY | 2024-02-19 | [The El Niño weather pattern shapes 2024 commodity price forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31589-the-el-nino-weather-pattern-shapes-2024-commodity-price-forecast.md) | -3.1% | +1.3% |
| SOY | 2026-10-08 | [El Niño raises risks for agricultural commodities in the 4th quarter - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17054-el-nino-raises-risks-for-agricultural-commodities-in-the-4th-quarter-revista.md) | -0.8% | -5.1% |
| SOY | 2026-07-27 | [INFOGRAPHIC: El Niño may lead to global food supply volatility in 2026-27 \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18244-infographic-el-nino-may-lead-to-global-food-supply-volatility-in-2026-27-s-and.md) | -6.1% | -1.8% |

## Sources

- ecb.europa.eu: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202306_01~36e78cc75e.en.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.