# Brazil: How higher for how longer? – Rabobank — Octa

> Rabobank says Hamas's attack on Israel has triggered global risk-off sentiment, alongside strong US payrolls. It expects USD/BRL to reach 5.05 by end-2023 and 5.15 by end-2024, citing geopolitical risk and fiscal fragility in Brazil.

- Date: 2023-10-11 · published 2023-10-11T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/33833-brazil-how-higher-for-how-longer-rabobank-octa
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

Geopolitical risk-off flows and a weaker BRL can shift Brazilian export competitiveness for soy and corn, which affects global feed grain pricing.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲
- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2017-10-02 | [Brazilian assets: highly driven by global developments - Rabobank — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68652-brazilian-assets-highly-driven-by-global-developments-rabobank-octa.md) | -0.2% | +3.0% |
| USDBRL | 2018-07-18 | [Brazil: Presidential race about to start - Rabobank - Forex Crunch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64234-brazil-presidential-race-about-to-start-rabobank-forex-crunch.md) | -3.2% | +0.6% |
| USDBRL | 2019-07-30 | [Brazil: BCB to ease - TDS — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58290-brazil-bcb-to-ease-tds-octa.md) | +4.1% | +9.7% |
| USDBRL | 2019-10-30 | [Brazil: BCB to cut rates by 50bps – TDS — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56777-brazil-bcb-to-cut-rates-by-50bps-tds-octa.md) | -0.1% | +6.6% |
| USDBRL | 2026-10-01 | [Brazilian Real: Exchange rate seen weaker into year-end – Rabobank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17671-brazilian-real-exchange-rate-seen-weaker-into-year-end-rabobank.md) | -3.5% | +4.1% |
| DXY | 2022-12-15 | [Gold broods over Fed's higher-for-longer rate hike stance](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38157-gold-broods-over-fed-s-higher-for-longer-rate-hike-stance.md) | +0.4% | -2.2% |
| DXY | 2023-09-21 | [Gold retreats on Fed's higher-for-longer stance](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34007-gold-retreats-on-fed-s-higher-for-longer-stance.md) | +1.7% | +2.3% |
| DXY | 2023-09-20 | [Oil prices ease 1% after US Fed warns of higher rates for longer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34005-oil-prices-ease-1-after-us-fed-warns-of-higher-rates-for-longer.md) | +1.1% | +2.2% |

## Sources

- octabroker.com: https://www.octabroker.com/markets/news/view/1070077/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.