# Current ENSO and IOD Conditions, Forecasts, and the Potential Impacts

> A CGSPace presentation dated October 18, 2023 says the El Niño has been in place since late May 2023 and is already strong, with peak intensity expected November to January. It also notes a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is underway, which can amplify the effects. The event is likely to persist through March to May 2024, with a 3 in 10 chance of a historically strong event.

- Date: 2023-10-18 · published 2023-10-18T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/33547-current-enso-and-iod-conditions-forecasts-and-the-potential-impacts
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

A strong, persistent El Niño combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole raises the risk of crop shortfalls in Australia, Southeast Asia, Southern Africa and Latin America. That supports feed grain and wheat prices into 2024.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-07-23 | [Current forecasts 'broadly positive' for EU oilseeds and protein crops - Agriland.ie](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18399-current-forecasts-broadly-positive-for-eu-oilseeds-and-protein-crops-agriland-ie.md) | -3.2% | -2.0% |
| CORN | 2021-06-08 | [Potential for Drought Can Impact Prices and Marketing Plans \| NDSU Agriculture](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46421-potential-for-drought-can-impact-prices-and-marketing-plans-ndsu-agriculture.md) | -2.0% | +2.4% |
| CORN | 2025-01-09 | [US forecaster says La Nina conditions present, could persist through Feb-April](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13886-us-forecaster-says-la-nina-conditions-present-could-persist-through-feb-april.md) | +4.1% | +5.7% |
| CORN | 2025-03-13 | [U.S. forecaster sees neutral weather conditions persisting through summer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25497-u-s-forecaster-sees-neutral-weather-conditions-persisting-through-summer.md) | +6.5% | +5.2% |
| CORN | 2019-10-01 | [Argentina Crops Being Impacted by Drought Conditions - ProAg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56410-argentina-crops-being-impacted-by-drought-conditions-proag.md) | +1.5% | -0.6% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-23 | [Current forecasts 'broadly positive' for EU oilseeds and protein crops - Agriland.ie](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18399-current-forecasts-broadly-positive-for-eu-oilseeds-and-protein-crops-agriland-ie.md) | -2.3% | -2.9% |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-13 | [U.S. forecaster sees neutral weather conditions persisting through summer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25497-u-s-forecaster-sees-neutral-weather-conditions-persisting-through-summer.md) | +5.7% | +2.3% |
| WHEAT | 2019-10-01 | [Argentina Crops Being Impacted by Drought Conditions - ProAg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56410-argentina-crops-being-impacted-by-drought-conditions-proag.md) | -4.8% | -2.4% |

## Sources

- hdl.handle.net: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134435

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.