# Ongoing El Nino forecast to bring dry conditions in Southern Africa, SE Asia, Central America and wet conditions in Eastern Africa - Agroportal

> The JRC's October ASAP assessment flags drier-than-average conditions for most of southern Africa from November 2023 to January 2024, with favourable prospects for South African and Zimbabwean wheat. East Africa faces mixed main-season prospects from localized drought and conflict, while the short-rains season may bring floods.

- Date: 2023-11-13 · published 2023-11-13T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Southern Africa · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/33103-ongoing-el-nino-forecast-to-bring-dry-conditions-in-southern-africa-se-asia
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Below-average rains in southern Africa could reduce maize output and raise regional import demand for corn. Impact on global grain prices should be limited unless the dryness deepens.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-09-04 | [El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17395-el-nino-drives-crop-failure-in-central-america-and-east-africa-and-threatens.md) | +0.5% | +1.9% |
| CORN | 2026-10-07 | [El Niño weather extremes worsen food security in East Africa and Central America and threaten next season crops in Southern Africa and South America - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17047-el-nino-weather-extremes-worsen-food-security-in-east-africa-and-central.md) | -2.4% | -6.1% |
| CORN | 2018-02-27 | [Dry weather conditions and high temperatures likely to reduce harvests in Southern Africa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66421-dry-weather-conditions-and-high-temperatures-likely-to-reduce-harvests-in.md) | +1.6% | +2.4% |
| CORN | 2024-08-26 | [Hot and Dry Weather Forecast for Central Brazil's Planting Season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13550-hot-and-dry-weather-forecast-for-central-brazil-s-planting-season.md) | +2.6% | +6.4% |
| CORN | 2026-05-06 | [Widespread ASAP forecast warnings on crops for second half of the year due to upcoming El Niño conditions - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19186-widespread-asap-forecast-warnings-on-crops-for-second-half-of-the-year-due-to.md) | +1.7% | -2.3% |

## Sources

- agroportal.pt: https://www.agroportal.pt/ongoing-el-nino-forecast-to-bring-dry-conditions-in-southern-africa-se-asia-central-america-and-wet-conditions-in-eastern-africa/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.