# El Niño ahead: Potential disruption to fishmeal supply in 2024

> Rabobank's outlook warns El Niño is likely to persist through the first half of 2024, with a 60% to 80% probability of a strong event in Q2 2024. Peru's second anchovy season quota of 1.68m tonnes is below recent averages, and minibans that suspend fishing could further cut catches.

- Date: 2023-11-30 · published 2023-11-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Peru · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/33069-el-nino-ahead-potential-disruption-to-fishmeal-supply-in-2024
- Commodities: [Fishmeal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/FISHMEAL.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Tight Peruvian fishmeal and fish oil supply supports prices and may keep them elevated for longer, which lifts the cost of protein feed substitutes.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲
- FISHMEAL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBM | 2026-08-01 | [Alert: El Niño slams Peruvian anchovy catch, fishmeal supply…](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4744-alert-el-nino-slams-peruvian-anchovy-catch-fishmeal-supply.md) | -0.8% | +3.6% |
| SBM | 2019-03-14 | [Aquafeed.com \|
   

   
    Peruvian fishmeal production expected to fall in 2019](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59988-aquafeed-com-peruvian-fishmeal-production-expected-to-fall-in-2019.md) | +3.8% | +3.3% |
| SBM | 2026-07-01 | [Peru extends anchovy fishing suspension again, threatening global fishmeal supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18701-peru-extends-anchovy-fishing-suspension-again-threatening-global-fishmeal-supply.md) | +2.2% | +6.7% |
| SBM | 2026-10-26 | [ANALYSIS: El Niño Weakens Humboldt Current, Squeezing Anchovy Supply and Lifting Fishmeal Prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/512-analysis-el-nino-weakens-humboldt-current-squeezing-anchovy-supply-and-lifting.md) | -3.6% | — |
| SBM | 2023-05-25 | [Peru: El Niño delays anchovy fishing season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35843-peru-el-nino-delays-anchovy-fishing-season.md) | -2.3% | +6.9% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-07-27 | [INFOGRAPHIC: El Niño may lead to global food supply volatility in 2026-27 \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18244-infographic-el-nino-may-lead-to-global-food-supply-volatility-in-2026-27-s-and.md) | -0.2% | +4.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-10-01 | [El Niño Set to Crimp Palm Oil Output in 2027, Squeezing Supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17546-el-nino-set-to-crimp-palm-oil-output-in-2027-squeezing-supply.md) | -5.8% | -3.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-07-07 | [Malaysia forecasts peak of El Niño to hit in early 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34966-malaysia-forecasts-peak-of-el-nino-to-hit-in-early-2024.md) | -0.1% | +0.4% |

## Sources

- agnavigator.com: https://www.agnavigator.com/Article/2023/11/30/el-nino-ahead-potential-disruption-to-fishmeal-supply-in-2024/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.