# USD/BRL: Real well positioned despite rate cuts – Commerzbank — Octa

> Commerzbank says the Brazilian real is well positioned over the medium term despite expected central bank rate cuts, and that the central bank could cut the Selic by 50 basis points to 11.75%. It warns the real could weaken in the short term if markets price in faster cuts. The bank argues downside for the currency is limited given the central bank's inflation credibility.

- Date: 2023-12-13 · published 2023-12-13T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/32941-usd-brl-real-well-positioned-despite-rate-cuts-commerzbank-octa
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

A firmer real makes Brazilian soybean and corn exports less competitive in dollar terms and can slow farmer selling, while a weaker real would support export flows. The outlook is a currency view rather than a supply or demand shock.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2026-08-19 | [Brazilian Real: Election risks then renewed gains – Commerzbank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18107-brazilian-real-election-risks-then-renewed-gains-commerzbank.md) | -1.1% | -1.2% |
| USDBRL | 2023-09-26 | [Brazil inflation accelerates as cenbank reiterates rate cut pace](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34321-brazil-inflation-accelerates-as-cenbank-reiterates-rate-cut-pace.md) | +2.3% | +0.7% |
| USDBRL | 2019-06-14 | [BRL: Rollercoaster ride continues - Rabobank — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58797-brl-rollercoaster-ride-continues-rabobank-octa.md) | -0.2% | -2.7% |
| USDBRL | 2023-08-30 | [EMERGING MARKETS-Latin American currencies up on weaker dollar; Brazil's real lags on rate-cut speculation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34788-emerging-markets-latin-american-currencies-up-on-weaker-dollar-brazil-s-real.md) | +2.3% | +4.1% |
| USDBRL | 2025-06-30 | [Brazilian economists expect central bank to cut rates in early 2026 despite hawkish signals](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24422-brazilian-economists-expect-central-bank-to-cut-rates-in-early-2026-despite.md) | -0.3% | +2.1% |

## Sources

- octaafrica.net: https://www.octaafrica.net/markets/news/view/1080239/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.