# Exchange rate seen as stable amid high interest rate differential

> Santander economists expect the Brazilian real to remain relatively stable, as the real interest rate differential with the US of about 5 percentage points provides a cushion. Brazil's policy rate is expected to stay restrictive through 2024 while US rates are expected to fall. The analysis suggests the narrowing nominal spread is unlikely to trigger a sharp real depreciation.

- Date: 2023-12-11 · published 2023-12-11T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/32939-exchange-rate-seen-as-stable-amid-high-interest-rate-differential
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

A stable real keeps Brazilian soybean and corn export prices steady in dollar terms, limiting farm selling pressure and the risk of a sudden cost jump for imported feed inputs. It is a forecast of currency stability rather than a new event.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2021-08-25 | [USD/BRL Flat As Investors Brace for Rate Hikes Amid Higher Inflation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45758-usd-brl-flat-as-investors-brace-for-rate-hikes-amid-higher-inflation.md) | -2.6% | -0.1% |
| USDBRL | 2021-12-08 | [Brazil central bank makes 150 bps interest rate hike, signals another](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43827-brazil-central-bank-makes-150-bps-interest-rate-hike-signals-another.md) | +0.7% | +1.3% |
| USDBRL | 2021-09-23 | [BoE sees growing case for rate rise as inflation to stay higher for longer \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45307-boe-sees-growing-case-for-rate-rise-as-inflation-to-stay-higher-for-longer.md) | +2.6% | +7.1% |
| USDBRL | 2025-03-21 | [Interest rates surge after record Treasury auction](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25809-interest-rates-surge-after-record-treasury-auction.md) | +1.1% | +2.8% |
| USDBRL | 2023-09-26 | [EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real steady after inflation data, Hungary trims interest rates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34325-emerging-markets-brazil-s-real-steady-after-inflation-data-hungary-trims.md) | +2.3% | +0.7% |

## Sources

- valorinternational.globo.com: https://valorinternational.globo.com/markets/news/2023/12/11/exchange-rate-seen-as-stable-amid-high-interest-rate-differential.ghtml

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.