# Terrain | Rally in U.S. Wheat Prices Will Depend on Russia

> Russia's ongoing drone strikes on Ukraine's Danube River ports, which now handle 65% of Ukraine's grain exports, continue after the Black Sea Grain Initiative expired in July. USDA projects 2023/24 global wheat exports from Ukraine to fall 39% versus the five-year average.

- Date: 2023-12-19 · published 2023-12-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/32745-terrain-rally-in-u-s-wheat-prices-will-depend-on-russia
- Commodities: [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Reduced Ukrainian export capacity tightens global wheat supply, but Russia and Ukraine have beaten expectations, which has limited price support. Any escalation at Danube ports could lift US wheat prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2026-07-16 | [Russia and Ukraine strike vessels in Black Sea, wheat prices jump](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7279-russia-and-ukraine-strike-vessels-in-black-sea-wheat-prices-jump.md) | +6.0% | +0.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-01-31 | [Russia-Ukraine Tensions Drive Global Wheat Prices Higher](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43173-russia-ukraine-tensions-drive-global-wheat-prices-higher.md) | -2.1% | +18.9% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-02-23 | [Winter Wheat Prices Touch 9-Year High on Russia, Ukraine Fears - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42748-winter-wheat-prices-touch-9-year-high-on-russia-ukraine-fears-bloomberg.md) | +14.8% | +26.6% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-02-24 | [AgriMarketing.com - Wheat Prices Soar Following Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42753-agrimarketing-com-wheat-prices-soar-following-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine.md) | +17.5% | +21.7% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-04-27 | [US wheat prices surge in wake of Russia-Ukraine conflict - High Plains Journal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41903-us-wheat-prices-surge-in-wake-of-russia-ukraine-conflict-high-plains-journal.md) | -6.6% | +6.9% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-16 | [Russia and Ukraine strike vessels in Black Sea, wheat prices jump](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7279-russia-and-ukraine-strike-vessels-in-black-sea-wheat-prices-jump.md) | +3.9% | +0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2022-01-31 | [Russia-Ukraine Tensions Drive Global Wheat Prices Higher](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43173-russia-ukraine-tensions-drive-global-wheat-prices-higher.md) | -1.7% | +0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2022-02-23 | [Winter Wheat Prices Touch 9-Year High on Russia, Ukraine Fears - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42748-winter-wheat-prices-touch-9-year-high-on-russia-ukraine-fears-bloomberg.md) | +6.4% | +26.3% |

## Sources

- terrainag.com: https://www.terrainag.com/insights/rally-in-u-s-wheat-prices-will-depend-on-russia/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.