# Fertilizer Outlook: Global dynamics to influence 2024 fertilizer prices

> Farm Futures outlook says Chinese export controls, reduced Brazilian fertilizer applications and Red Sea shipping disruption will keep 2024 fertilizer prices volatile. Brazilian farmers are slowing purchases as drought cuts safrinha corn prospects. Red Sea attacks have not yet stopped fertilizer shipments, but urea faces the highest risk of price increases.

- Date: 2023-12-22 · published 2023-12-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/32630-fertilizer-outlook-global-dynamics-to-influence-2024-fertilizer-prices
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

Constrained Chinese exports and softer Brazilian demand weigh on early-year prices, while shipping risk gives urea an upside bias that buyers should consider when timing purchases.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-02-03 | [Global dynamics continue to shape fertiliser prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5722-global-dynamics-continue-to-shape-fertiliser-prices.md) | +3.3% | +33.9% |
| UREA | 2021-10-20 | [Rice Prices Set to Rise as Fertilizer Rally Drives Up Farm Costs - Caixin Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44642-rice-prices-set-to-rise-as-fertilizer-rally-drives-up-farm-costs-caixin-global.md) | -2.0% | +9.0% |
| UREA | 2021-10-20 | [China’s curbs on fertilizer exports to worsen global price shock](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44476-china-s-curbs-on-fertilizer-exports-to-worsen-global-price-shock.md) | -2.0% | +9.0% |
| UREA | 2026-03-16 | [China Reins in Fertilizer Exports as War Pushes Up Global Prices - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20096-china-reins-in-fertilizer-exports-as-war-pushes-up-global-prices-bloomberg.md) | +3.2% | +17.0% |
| UREA | 2025-11-04 | [China’s export controls drive up global fertilizer prices - DatamarNews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21859-china-s-export-controls-drive-up-global-fertilizer-prices-datamarnews.md) | -2.3% | -10.6% |
| DAP | 2022-01-04 | [Global Phosphorus Fertilizer Trends and Outlook to 2022 – Phosphate Price](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43469-global-phosphorus-fertilizer-trends-and-outlook-to-2022-phosphate-price.md) | -0.5% | -4.6% |
| DAP | 2026-02-03 | [Global dynamics continue to shape fertiliser prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5722-global-dynamics-continue-to-shape-fertiliser-prices.md) | +1.2% | +5.6% |
| DAP | 2021-10-20 | [Rice Prices Set to Rise as Fertilizer Rally Drives Up Farm Costs - Caixin Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44642-rice-prices-set-to-rise-as-fertilizer-rally-drives-up-farm-costs-caixin-global.md) | +0.0% | +4.3% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/marketing/fertilizer-outlook-global-dynamics-to-influence-2024-fertilizer-prices

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.