# How long will the El Nino last? Latest official forecasts - Grain Price News

> Grain Price News summarises official forecasts on the El Nino-La Nina cycle, citing the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's December 5, 2023 outlook. The bureau expects below-median summer rainfall in northern and western Australia, and El Nino to persist into early 2024 at moderate strength.

- Date: 2023-12-06 · published 2023-12-06T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/32486-how-long-will-the-el-nino-last-latest-official-forecasts-grain-price-news
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

A persistent El Nino raises dryness risk for Australian wheat and Southeast Asian palm oil and rice, supporting prices for those crops and adding to supply uncertainty.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2019-09-17 | [ABARES slashes grain production forecasts \| The Land \| NSW](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57047-abares-slashes-grain-production-forecasts-the-land-nsw.md) | +2.4% | +2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2022-07-28 | [How big will Western Australia's wheat crop be? - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40444-how-big-will-western-australia-s-wheat-crop-be-grain-price-news.md) | +4.6% | +0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2018-09-11 | [Drought bites in the east as ABARES forecasts 12pc cut to grain production - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62980-drought-bites-in-the-east-as-abares-forecasts-12pc-cut-to-grain-production-abc.md) | -7.4% | -7.0% |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-06 | [From rice to palm oil, crop output forecasts for Asia-Pacific lower as El Nino strengthens \| The Straits Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33998-from-rice-to-palm-oil-crop-output-forecasts-for-asia-pacific-lower-as-el-nino.md) | +2.1% | -4.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-10-10 | [COCERAL forecasts the grain harvest in the EU-27 + UK at 289.8 mln tons.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33560-coceral-forecasts-the-grain-harvest-in-the-eu-27-uk-at-289-8-mln-tons.md) | +0.2% | -1.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-06-27 | [Palm oil will rise in price in the second half of the year – forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35580-palm-oil-will-rise-in-price-in-the-second-half-of-the-year-forecast.md) | +12.1% | +13.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-06 | [From rice to palm oil, crop output forecasts for Asia-Pacific lower as El Nino strengthens \| The Straits Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33998-from-rice-to-palm-oil-crop-output-forecasts-for-asia-pacific-lower-as-el-nino.md) | -4.2% | -6.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-08-30 | [From rice to palm oil, Asian crops output forecast lower as El Nino strengthens](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34470-from-rice-to-palm-oil-asian-crops-output-forecast-lower-as-el-nino-strengthens.md) | +0.6% | -3.1% |

## Sources

- grainpricenews.com: https://grainpricenews.com/2023/12/06/will-2023-see-el-nino-replace-la-nina-latest-official-forecasts/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.