# User | chroniclejournal.com - USD/BRL forecast as the Fed and Brazil Central Bank diverge

> The USD/BRL pair traded near 4.96 after the Federal Reserve held rates at 5.25% to 5.50% and Brazil's central bank cut its Selic by 50 basis points to 11.25%. The article notes that prices of Brazil's key exports, including soybeans and corn, have retreated in recent months.

- Date: 2024-01-31 · published 2024-01-31T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/32326-user-chroniclejournal-com-usd-brl-forecast-as-the-fed-and-brazil-central-bank
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Soybean and corn price declines weaken Brazil's export income and can increase Brazilian farmer selling, pressuring world soy and corn prices. The Fed-Brazil rate divergence keeps the real under pressure.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- USDBRL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2021-03-12 | [FX Daily: Brazilian central bank’s line in the sand \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48310-fx-daily-brazilian-central-bank-s-line-in-the-sand-ing-think.md) | -0.3% | +0.4% |
| USDBRL | 2025-03-27 | [Brazil's central bank signals need for higher rates for longer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25807-brazil-s-central-bank-signals-need-for-higher-rates-for-longer.md) | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| USDBRL | 2023-12-12 | [USDBRL should reflect Brazil's GDP, employment and services in the US, and data for China](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32942-usdbrl-should-reflect-brazil-s-gdp-employment-and-services-in-the-us-and-data.md) | -0.1% | -1.0% |
| USDBRL | 2022-09-26 | [Brazil makes first FX intervention of the year - Central Banking](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39790-brazil-makes-first-fx-intervention-of-the-year-central-banking.md) | +3.1% | +0.8% |
| USDBRL | 2021-12-08 | [Brazil central bank makes 150 bps interest rate hike, signals another](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43827-brazil-central-bank-makes-150-bps-interest-rate-hike-signals-another.md) | +0.7% | +1.3% |
| SOY | 2020-03-04 | [Brazil central bank to intervene in FX swaps market on Thursday](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54310-brazil-central-bank-to-intervene-in-fx-swaps-market-on-thursday.md) | -2.2% | -0.8% |
| SOY | 2019-05-14 | [Brazil's Real slides past 4.00 to the US dollar as China/US trade dispute escalates — MercoPress](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59265-brazil-s-real-slides-past-4-00-to-the-us-dollar-as-china-us-trade-dispute.md) | +5.2% | +8.6% |
| SOY | 2023-06-27 | [Brazil central bank minutes raise possibility of August rate cut \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35693-brazil-central-bank-minutes-raise-possibility-of-august-rate-cut-reuters.md) | +2.7% | -0.4% |

## Sources

- markets.chroniclejournal.com: https://markets.chroniclejournal.com/chroniclejournal/news/read/43885191/usd/brl_forecast_as_the_fed_and_brazil_central_bank_diverge

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.