# One more cut from Brazil and the Selic is ‘neutral’ | opinions | ING THINK

> ING analysts argue one more rate cut by Brazil's central bank would bring the Selic rate to a neutral level, so further cuts would need positive economic data to be justified. They also note Brazilian market spreads to the US look rich compared with history, while Mexican spreads look more attractive.

- Date: 2024-01-29 · published 2024-01-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/32325-one-more-cut-from-brazil-and-the-selic-is-neutral-opinions-ing-think
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

Brazilian interest-rate policy shapes the real's direction and the cost of capital for Brazilian farms and exporters. Slower future cuts would limit currency weakness and domestic feed-demand support.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2021-03-12 | [FX Daily: Brazilian central bank’s line in the sand \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48310-fx-daily-brazilian-central-bank-s-line-in-the-sand-ing-think.md) | -0.3% | +0.4% |
| USDBRL | 2020-06-16 | [Brazil: A monetary policy test for the BRL \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52814-brazil-a-monetary-policy-test-for-the-brl-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.3% | +4.2% |
| USDBRL | 2022-09-26 | [Brazil makes first FX intervention of the year - Central Banking](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39790-brazil-makes-first-fx-intervention-of-the-year-central-banking.md) | +3.1% | +0.8% |
| USDBRL | 2025-02-03 | [Trump's tariffs raise fears Brazil's central bank is out of step on inflation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26256-trump-s-tariffs-raise-fears-brazil-s-central-bank-is-out-of-step-on-inflation.md) | -0.9% | +0.8% |
| USDBRL | 2019-03-21 | [221th Meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (“Copom”) of the Central Bank of Brazil Press Release — The Industry Spread](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60308-221th-meeting-of-the-monetary-policy-committee-copom-of-the-central-bank-of.md) | +4.6% | +4.0% |

## Sources

- think.ing.com: https://think.ing.com/opinions/one-more-cut-from-brazil-and-the-selic-is-at-neutral/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.