# W1 Wheat Update: EU Soft Wheat Production Forecast Drops for 204/25 Season; India Projects Record Wheat Production of 114 MMT for 2023/24 MY

> Analysts cut the EU soft wheat production forecast for the 2024/25 season to 125.6 million tons, more than 2 million tons below the current season, citing lower French wheat acreage after excessive rainfall. India projects a record 2023/24 wheat crop of 114 million tons assuming normal weather, and its state wheat stocks are above the buffer norm despite open market sales.

- Date: 2024-01-12 · published 2024-01-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/32061-w1-wheat-update-eu-soft-wheat-production-forecast-drops-for-204-25-season-india
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller EU crop reduces exportable wheat supply and supports firmer wheat prices, while India's record crop and comfortable stocks limit the chance of Indian import demand or export restrictions lifting prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2024-06-13 | [European soft wheat production forecast at 134.5 million tonnes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29700-european-soft-wheat-production-forecast-at-134-5-million-tonnes.md) | -2.1% | -3.6% |
| WHEAT | 2024-03-29 | [EU sees soft wheat production falling to four-year low in 2024/25](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31152-eu-sees-soft-wheat-production-falling-to-four-year-low-in-2024-25.md) | -1.3% | +1.9% |
| WHEAT | 2017-08-10 | [USDA Forecasts Record-High Soybean Production in 2017](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69299-usda-forecasts-record-high-soybean-production-in-2017.md) | -0.2% | -0.6% |
| WHEAT | 2026-04-29 | [Australia’s wheat production forecast to drop \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19682-australia-s-wheat-production-forecast-to-drop-world-grain.md) | -3.1% | -0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2021-08-13 | [All-wheat production forecast down 3% from July estimate \| 2021-08-13  \| Food Business News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45612-all-wheat-production-forecast-down-3-from-july-estimate-2021-08-13-food.md) | +1.6% | +3.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2018-02-22 | [Early Estimates Expect 2018/19 Wheat Production to Fall in the Black Sea - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66432-early-estimates-expect-2018-19-wheat-production-to-fall-in-the-black-sea-u-s.md) | +9.1% | -0.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2023-04-12 | [The USDA raised its consumption forecast and lowered its estimate of wheat stocks, but prices continued to fall](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36464-the-usda-raised-its-consumption-forecast-and-lowered-its-estimate-of-wheat.md) | +1.5% | +4.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-08-19 | [Global wheat exports update: Russia’s wheat exports rise to 732,000 tonnes, while US exports forecast at 875 million bushels - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14185-global-wheat-exports-update-russia-s-wheat-exports-rise-to-732-000-tonnes-while.md) | -1.9% | +3.4% |

## Sources

- tridge.com: https://www.tridge.com/weekly-product-updates/w1-wheat-update-eu-soft-wheat-production-forecast-drops-for-20425-season

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.