# What are the odds that extreme weather will lead to a global food shock? » Yale Climate Connections

> A Lloyd's study from 2023 modeled the economic impact of extreme weather scenarios using 40 years of data and crop and water-stress models. It considered major, severe and extreme cases, with the major case carrying large global costs.

- Date: 2024-01-25 · published 2024-01-25T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/32042-what-are-the-odds-that-extreme-weather-will-lead-to-a-global-food-shock-yale
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

The study frames the tail risk of multiyear crop failures in major exporters, which underpins long-run risk premiums in grain and oilseed markets but offers no immediate supply change.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2024-01-31 | [Will La Niña return this fall? The tea leaves are unusually strong » Yale Climate Connections](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32044-will-la-nina-return-this-fall-the-tea-leaves-are-unusually-strong-yale-climate.md) | -4.0% | -7.3% |
| CORN | 2025-10-21 | [How Current Weather Trends Are Shaping Global Grain Production - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13048-how-current-weather-trends-are-shaping-global-grain-production-agweb.md) | +1.0% | +4.0% |
| CORN | 2021-07-22 | [ENSO as a climate conductor for global crop yields \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45979-enso-as-a-climate-conductor-for-global-crop-yields-noaa-climate-gov.md) | -2.8% | -2.1% |
| CORN | 2017-08-14 | [What Does Lack of El Niño, La Niña Mean For Winter? \| The Weather Channel](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69375-what-does-lack-of-el-nino-la-nina-mean-for-winter-the-weather-channel.md) | -2.0% | -4.4% |
| CORN | 2017-11-06 | [Weather continues to influence global markets \| Crops \| leadertelegram.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67813-weather-continues-to-influence-global-markets-crops-leadertelegram-com.md) | -4.4% | -4.2% |
| SOY | 2024-01-31 | [Will La Niña return this fall? The tea leaves are unusually strong » Yale Climate Connections](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32044-will-la-nina-return-this-fall-the-tea-leaves-are-unusually-strong-yale-climate.md) | -1.6% | -7.0% |
| SOY | 2025-10-21 | [How Current Weather Trends Are Shaping Global Grain Production - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13048-how-current-weather-trends-are-shaping-global-grain-production-agweb.md) | +3.4% | +12.2% |
| SOY | 2021-07-22 | [ENSO as a climate conductor for global crop yields \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45979-enso-as-a-climate-conductor-for-global-crop-yields-noaa-climate-gov.md) | -0.5% | -5.6% |

## Sources

- yaleclimateconnections.org: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/01/what-are-the-odds-that-extreme-weather-will-lead-to-a-global-food-shock/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.