# EMFX: Carry and Domestic Fundamentals Rather Than the USD

> Continuum Economics says most major emerging-market currencies have weakened against the dollar in 2024, mainly because Fed easing expectations have been scaled back. Carry trades should keep the Brazilian real and Indian rupee resilient through 2024, while the Mexican peso is vulnerable to a possible Trump re-election and the yuan faces losses on weak Chinese growth.

- Date: 2024-02-22 · published 2024-02-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/31879-emfx-carry-and-domestic-fundamentals-rather-than-the-usd
- Commodities: [Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDCNY.md), [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker yuan could reduce China's purchasing power for feed ingredients, while a stable real supports Brazilian exporters' offers for soybeans and corn.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bearish ▼
- USDCNY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDCNY | 2016-11-29 | [FxWirePro: What else is appending impetus to USD/CNY appreciation than PBoC mechanism? Is it rate differentials and/or Trump factor? \| EconoTimes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/74065-fxwirepro-what-else-is-appending-impetus-to-usd-cny-appreciation-than-pboc.md) | -0.4% | +0.6% |
| USDCNY | 2022-05-05 | [US Fed rate hike: how can China stem capital outflow and prop up the yuan? \| South China Morning Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8315-us-fed-rate-hike-how-can-china-stem-capital-outflow-and-prop-up-the-yuan-south.md) | +1.7% | +0.8% |
| USDCNY | 2022-12-05 | [Renminbi movements: it's more than the trade and current account - OMFIF](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6575-renminbi-movements-it-s-more-than-the-trade-and-current-account-omfif.md) | -0.9% | -1.5% |
| USDCNY | 2024-07-22 | [China stocks drop after party meeting, yuan falls on rate cuts - The Pound Hub](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7517-china-stocks-drop-after-party-meeting-yuan-falls-on-rate-cuts-the-pound-hub.md) | -0.3% | -1.4% |
| USDCNY | 2023-06-04 | [China's yuan may slip further to aid economic recovery - analysts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35717-china-s-yuan-may-slip-further-to-aid-economic-recovery-analysts.md) | +0.6% | +2.2% |
| USDBRL | 2022-12-13 | [Latam FX: Fiscal fundamentals \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38430-latam-fx-fiscal-fundamentals-articles-ing-think.md) | -0.5% | -2.6% |
| USDBRL | 2022-12-23 | [USD/BRL: Fiscal fundamentals continue to be fragile – Rabobank: Analytics and Market news from 23 December 2022 15:34](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38434-usd-brl-fiscal-fundamentals-continue-to-be-fragile-rabobank-analytics-and.md) | +2.3% | -0.5% |
| USDBRL | 2025-09-15 | [Latam FX Talking: Carry trade remains the dominant theme \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23090-latam-fx-talking-carry-trade-remains-the-dominant-theme-articles-ing-think.md) | -0.5% | +2.4% |

## Sources

- continuumeconomics.com: https://continuumeconomics.com/a/6bdfcbd6/emfx-carry-and-domestic-fundamentals-rather-than-the-usd

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.