# The El Niño weather pattern shapes 2024 commodity price forecast

> Focus Economics says the El Niño pattern will restrain agricultural output in 2024, and that La Niña has a 55% likelihood of developing in June-August. It notes soft commodity prices rose 12.3% in 2023 and that India's monsoon was the driest in five years.

- Date: 2024-02-19 · published 2024-02-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/31589-the-el-nino-weather-pattern-shapes-2024-commodity-price-forecast
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

Expectations of weaker output from weather patterns support higher commodity price forecasts through 2024. Feed costs could stay elevated if the forecast tightens supply.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2018-08-10 | [El Niño forecast may mean better maize prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63455-el-nino-forecast-may-mean-better-maize-prices.md) | -7.5% | -9.1% |
| CORN | 2026-06-26 | [Corn: Dry weather forecasts drive up corn prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18832-corn-dry-weather-forecasts-drive-up-corn-prices.md) | -1.3% | +5.3% |
| CORN | 2023-09-28 | [Risks to global food commodity prices from El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33997-risks-to-global-food-commodity-prices-from-el-nino.md) | +1.1% | +1.7% |
| CORN | 2026-05-21 | [What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19191-what-a-possible-2026-27-super-el-nino-means-for-commodity-markets.md) | -1.7% | -7.1% |
| CORN | 2023-10-30 | [El Niño Forecast to Contribute to Food Insecurity - NASA Science](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33546-el-nino-forecast-to-contribute-to-food-insecurity-nasa-science.md) | -3.3% | -6.3% |
| SOY | 2023-09-28 | [Risks to global food commodity prices from El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33997-risks-to-global-food-commodity-prices-from-el-nino.md) | -2.3% | -1.2% |
| SOY | 2022-04-21 | [How are weather patterns shaping up for 2022?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41773-how-are-weather-patterns-shaping-up-for-2022.md) | -1.2% | -4.8% |
| SOY | 2026-05-21 | [What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19191-what-a-possible-2026-27-super-el-nino-means-for-commodity-markets.md) | -0.4% | -6.4% |

## Sources

- focus-economics.com: https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/goodbye-el-nino-hello-la-nina-commodity-price-forecasts-change-with-the-weather/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.