# Terrain | Margins Improve, but Not Enough to Spur Milk Production Growth

> Terrain's quarterly outlook says US milk production fell in January by a steeper-than-expected amount, with the milk cow herd 89,000 head below last year. Better margins and lower feed costs are not enough to restart growth because of expansion costs and high heifer prices. The analyst now expects 2024 output to rise 0.5% year over year, and the Class III and Class IV price spread stays wide.

- Date: 2024-03-25 · published 2024-03-25T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/31204-terrain-margins-improve-but-not-enough-to-spur-milk-production-growth
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

A shrinking dairy herd and a lower 2024 production forecast tighten milk supply, which supports milk prices and reduces demand for dairy-based feed.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2019-09-19 | [U.S. milk production growth remains small in August - Progressive Dairy \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57060-u-s-milk-production-growth-remains-small-in-august-progressive-dairy-ag-proud.md) | +0.1% | +2.0% |
| MILK | 2026-06-15 | [Global dairy markets heading towards ‘balance’ as milk production growth slows](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18813-global-dairy-markets-heading-towards-balance-as-milk-production-growth-slows.md) | +0.1% | -1.4% |
| MILK | 2019-03-26 | [Milk production continues to slow](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60104-milk-production-continues-to-slow.md) | +0.1% | +5.8% |
| MILK | 2022-07-10 | [Record-high Dairy Prices But Milk Collection Marginally Down In EU - EDairy News English](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40494-record-high-dairy-prices-but-milk-collection-marginally-down-in-eu-edairy-news.md) | -1.2% | -12.2% |
| MILK | 2017-06-28 | [Weekly Digest: Milk fat demand outpacing production growth -  \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10592-weekly-digest-milk-fat-demand-outpacing-production-growth-ag-proud.md) | -4.1% | -5.2% |

## Sources

- terrainag.com: https://www.terrainag.com/insights/margins-improve-but-not-enough-to-spur-milk-production-growth/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.