# Sizing Up Potential Downside Risk for New-Crop Corn and Soybean Prices - farmdoc daily

> A farmdoc daily analysis reviews USDA's May 10 new-crop corn and soybean forecasts and sizes up downside risk. It warns that if optimism about U.S. biofuel demand fails to materialize, processing capacity could create an oversupply of corn and soybean feedstocks. The author notes the 2005-2010 biofuel boom as a precedent and says the potential price impact is likely smaller than typical production shocks.

- Date: 2024-05-14 · published 2024-05-14T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/30287-sizing-up-potential-downside-risk-for-new-crop-corn-and-soybean-prices-farmdoc
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A shortfall in biofuel demand would cut feedstock use and weigh on corn and soybean prices. The analysis frames this as a downside risk rather than a current price driver.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2018-01-01 | [Soybean Price Potential for 2018](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67030-soybean-price-potential-for-2018.md) | +0.7% | +5.1% |
| SOY | 2021-08-22 | [Pro Farmer Releases National Corn and Soybean Crop Estimates - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45407-pro-farmer-releases-national-corn-and-soybean-crop-estimates-pro-farmer.md) | +5.1% | -2.4% |
| SOY | 2018-09-21 | [Surprising Drop in Prices of Corn, Soybeans, and Soy Meal – Lider Media](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62927-surprising-drop-in-prices-of-corn-soybeans-and-soy-meal-lider-media.md) | +0.6% | +1.6% |
| SOY | 2023-10-18 | [Brazil Expected to Expand Soybean Acreage and Reduce Corn Acreage - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13622-brazil-expected-to-expand-soybean-acreage-and-reduce-corn-acreage-farmdoc-daily.md) | -0.1% | +5.6% |
| SOY | 2022-08-29 | [Pro Farmer Releases 2022 National Corn and Soybean Crop Estimates - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13335-pro-farmer-releases-2022-national-corn-and-soybean-crop-estimates-pro-farmer.md) | -5.9% | -12.1% |
| CORN | 2017-05-15 | [2017-18 Market Prospects for Corn and Soybeans - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70852-2017-18-market-prospects-for-corn-and-soybeans-farmdoc-daily.md) | +0.5% | +3.5% |
| CORN | 2021-08-22 | [Pro Farmer Releases National Corn and Soybean Crop Estimates - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45407-pro-farmer-releases-national-corn-and-soybean-crop-estimates-pro-farmer.md) | +2.3% | -5.5% |
| CORN | 2020-08-25 | [Growing demand for corn, soybeans driving up prices \| Feed Strategy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51666-growing-demand-for-corn-soybeans-driving-up-prices-feed-strategy.md) | +3.0% | +8.9% |

## Sources

- farmdocdaily.illinois.edu: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/05/sizing-up-potential-downside-risk-for-new-crop-corn-and-soybean-prices.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.