# May 2024 ENSO update: we’re 10!

> NOAA's May ENSO update says El Niño has weakened substantially and a transition to neutral conditions is imminent. It gives a 69% chance La Niña develops by July–September, with near 50-50 odds by June–August.

- Date: 2024-06-01 · published 2024-06-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/30148-may-2024-enso-update-we-re-10
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A shift from El Niño toward La Niña raises the risk of drought in the Americas, which can cut yields for corn, soybeans and wheat and tighten feed supplies. Markets may price in weather risk ahead of the season.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2024-04-01 | [March 2024 ENSO update: award season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31122-march-2024-enso-update-award-season.md) | -4.2% | -6.0% |
| CORN | 2020-05-28 | [El Niño / La Niña Update (May 2020)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53044-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2020.md) | +1.0% | +1.7% |
| CORN | 2025-02-28 | [W8 2025: Maize Weekly Update](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26086-w8-2025-maize-weekly-update.md) | -2.4% | +0.5% |
| CORN | 2020-08-01 | [July 2020 ENSO update: La Niña Watch!](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52034-july-2020-enso-update-la-nina-watch.md) | -1.4% | +7.2% |
| CORN | 2023-06-01 | [May 2023 ENSO update: El Niño knocking on the door](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35865-may-2023-enso-update-el-nino-knocking-on-the-door.md) | -2.2% | -3.2% |
| SOY | 2024-04-01 | [March 2024 ENSO update: award season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31122-march-2024-enso-update-award-season.md) | -0.5% | -2.7% |
| SOY | 2020-05-28 | [El Niño / La Niña Update (May 2020)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53044-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2020.md) | +1.1% | +2.6% |
| SOY | 2020-08-01 | [July 2020 ENSO update: La Niña Watch!](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52034-july-2020-enso-update-la-nina-watch.md) | -3.0% | +5.9% |

## Sources

- climate.gov: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2024-enso-update-were-10

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.