# Grain Contraction Just One of Several Potential Concerning Headwinds — Breakwave Advisors

> Commodore Research notes that USDA again lowered its 2024/25 global grain export forecast on weaker harvests and raised its 2023/24 export estimate. The analysis expects a larger year-on-year contraction in 2024/25 grain trade, though it calls the forecast preliminary.

- Date: 2024-07-19 · published 2024-07-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/29495-grain-contraction-just-one-of-several-potential-concerning-headwinds-breakwave
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Ocean Grain Freight](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OCEANFRT.md)

## Why it matters

Tighter expected global grain export supplies for 2024/25 support corn and wheat prices, while shrinking grain trade volumes reduce demand for dry bulk shipping.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- OCEANFRT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2024-03-15 | [Smaller Dry Bulk Vessel Classes Continue to Benefit From Robust Coarse Grain Trade — Breakwave Advisors](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31405-smaller-dry-bulk-vessel-classes-continue-to-benefit-from-robust-coarse-grain.md) | +2.6% | -3.9% |
| CORN | 2017-02-01 | [World stockfeed production eclipses one billion tonnes for first time - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72615-world-stockfeed-production-eclipses-one-billion-tonnes-for-first-time-grain.md) | -0.1% | +0.9% |
| CORN | 2018-05-14 | [Market Trends Commentary for May-June 2018 - Grain Farmers of Ontario](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10236-market-trends-commentary-for-may-june-2018-grain-farmers-of-ontario.md) | +1.7% | -1.8% |
| CORN | 2021-05-05 | [Prices higher, corn continues tight: IGC - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47118-prices-higher-corn-continues-tight-igc-grain-central.md) | +1.4% | -4.0% |
| CORN | 2018-06-18 | [Market Trends Commentary for June-July 2018 - Grain Farmers of Ontario](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12355-market-trends-commentary-for-june-july-2018-grain-farmers-of-ontario.md) | -0.9% | -3.9% |
| WHEAT | 2020-07-14 | [Global wheat production on the decline - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52052-global-wheat-production-on-the-decline-grain-central.md) | +0.4% | -1.8% |
| WHEAT | 2017-07-21 | [Poor seasonal conditions drop Australian wheat production \| World-grain.com \| July 21, 2017 15:25 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69908-poor-seasonal-conditions-drop-australian-wheat-production-world-grain-com-july.md) | -2.7% | -0.3% |
| WHEAT | 2019-09-10 | [National crop outlook varies as eastern dry grinds on: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57041-national-crop-outlook-varies-as-eastern-dry-grinds-on-abares-grain-central.md) | +2.6% | +1.0% |

## Sources

- breakwaveadvisors.com: https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2024/7/19/lf04956k9n3w6ziswdi7ub4cod7eo1

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.