# Citi Sees LNG Damage Risk Driving Europe’s Gas Outlook | Makkler Labs

> Citi's scenario analysis puts winter 2026-27 TTF gas prices at €85/MWh if LNG facilities remain intact and about €154/MWh if they are knocked offline by conflict. The bank's weighted escalation estimate is about €103/MWh, and it sees a roughly 25% implied probability of LNG facilities being struck. Calendar 2028 TTF contracts have risen about 60% over three months.

- Date: 2026-11-01 · published 2026-11-01T18:08:46.797Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Europe · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/29420-citi-sees-lng-damage-risk-driving-europe-s-gas-outlook-makkler-labs
- Commodities: [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

A possible LNG outage would tighten global gas supply and raise European energy and fertilizer costs, which feeds through to feed production costs. The analysis points to upside risk in gas-linked inputs if the Middle East conflict escalates.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bullish ▲
- NATGAS: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NATGAS | 2021-12-14 | [Europe facing record low gas storage by winter's end](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43785-europe-facing-record-low-gas-storage-by-winter-s-end.md) | -1.2% | +7.3% |
| NATGAS | 2026-09-08 | [Europe's winter gas drama could leave deep scars \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17647-europe-s-winter-gas-drama-could-leave-deep-scars-reuters.md) | -2.5% | +2.2% |
| NATGAS | 2021-12-30 | [Hoping for cheaper gas to come, Europe reverses Russian link to tap storage](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43783-hoping-for-cheaper-gas-to-come-europe-reverses-russian-link-to-tap-storage.md) | +3.6% | +42.4% |
| NATGAS | 2026-03-03 | [Europe's skimpy gas storage under scrutiny as Qatar halts LNG flows \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20367-europe-s-skimpy-gas-storage-under-scrutiny-as-qatar-halts-lng-flows-reuters.md) | +7.0% | -3.1% |
| NATGAS | 2026-08-27 | [Europe’s gas stores are running low — and prices could top 100 euros](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18060-europe-s-gas-stores-are-running-low-and-prices-could-top-100-euros.md) | +3.2% | +11.3% |
| UREA | 2026-03-09 | [European nitrogen market rallies on gas price hike, Iran conflicts \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20464-european-nitrogen-market-rallies-on-gas-price-hike-iran-conflicts-s-and-p-global.md) | +3.4% | +21.0% |
| UREA | 2022-12-03 | [Commodities Outlook: Part Of The Supply Gap In 2023 Will Remain\| FXMAG.COM](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38564-commodities-outlook-part-of-the-supply-gap-in-2023-will-remain-fxmag-com.md) | +1.1% | -3.2% |
| UREA | 2022-11-30 | [Turbulence in fertiliser markets weighs on crop outlook \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38620-turbulence-in-fertiliser-markets-weighs-on-crop-outlook-articles-ing-think.md) | +3.8% | -0.5% |

## Sources

- makkler.com: https://makkler.com/labs/news/citi-sees-lng-damage-risk-driving-europe-s-gas-outlook-7deysd

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.