# Soybean Oil's Premium to Palm Oil at Risk Due to El Nino (2026)

> Analysts warn that El Niño could erode soybean oil's premium to palm oil, which may encourage more U.S. soybean oil exports. Palm oil prices rose 2% on a Tuesday while soybean oil closed sharply lower.

- Date: 2026-10-30 · published 2026-10-31T10:05:34.095Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/2871-soybean-oil-s-premium-to-palm-oil-at-risk-due-to-el-nino-2026
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md)

## Why it matters

El Niño weather risk to palm output supports palm prices, while expected U.S. export growth tightens soybean oil supply. The shifting premium changes relative demand between the two oils.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bearish ▼
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2023-11-23 | [El Nino poses risk to 2024 palm oil output in Indonesia, Malaysia - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33277-el-nino-poses-risk-to-2024-palm-oil-output-in-indonesia-malaysia-the.md) | -0.7% | -3.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-04-29 | [Indonesia 2026 crude palm oil output to fall due to El Nino, high fertiliser prices, association says \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19818-indonesia-2026-crude-palm-oil-output-to-fall-due-to-el-nino-high-fertiliser.md) | +2.8% | -1.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-29 | [Indonesian Palm Oil Association sees palm oil prices rising in 2024 as El Nino crimps domestic output](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34219-indonesian-palm-oil-association-sees-palm-oil-prices-rising-in-2024-as-el-nino.md) | -4.5% | -3.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2024-10-24 | [Palm oil reaches highest since 2022, adding to food price risks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27955-palm-oil-reaches-highest-since-2022-adding-to-food-price-risks.md) | +0.5% | +9.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-08-30 | [From rice to palm oil, Asian crops output forecast lower as El Nino strengthens](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34470-from-rice-to-palm-oil-asian-crops-output-forecast-lower-as-el-nino-strengthens.md) | +0.6% | -3.1% |
| SBO | 2017-03-09 | [Palm Oil Prices to Drop as Production Rebounds, Demand Slows](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72110-palm-oil-prices-to-drop-as-production-rebounds-demand-slows.md) | -3.2% | -4.4% |
| SBO | 2017-05-21 | [Palm oil production to rise in Indonesia - Oxford Business Group](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71097-palm-oil-production-to-rise-in-indonesia-oxford-business-group.md) | -4.4% | -0.7% |
| SBO | 2017-03-07 | [Global palm oil output seen rising 11pc in 2017 \| Malay Mail](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72112-global-palm-oil-output-seen-rising-11pc-in-2017-malay-mail.md) | -6.3% | -7.6% |

## Sources

- esgamselect.com: https://esgamselect.com/article/soybean-oil-s-premium-to-palm-oil-at-risk-due-to-el-nino
- sasamata.com: https://sasamata.com/article/soybean-oil-s-premium-to-palm-oil-at-risk-due-to-el-nino

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.