# Sixty-six per cent chance of La Niña weather emerging, U.S. forecaster says - AgCanada

> The US Climate Prediction Center gave a 66% chance of La Niña forming in September to November 2024, with a 74% chance for November to January. The forecast follows a neutral phase and is linked to both floods and droughts for global agriculture.

- Date: 2024-08-08 · published 2024-08-08T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/28679-sixty-six-per-cent-chance-of-la-nina-weather-emerging-u-s-forecaster-says
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A higher probability of La Niña points to improved prospects for some crops hit by El Niño, particularly in South America, which would be bearish for soybeans and corn if the pattern develops.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2025-12-11 | [La Niña to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely, U.S. forecasters say - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21415-la-nina-to-fade-early-next-year-neutral-pacific-conditions-likely-u-s.md) | -3.0% | -3.9% |
| SOY | 2019-07-02 | [U.S. grains: Corn, soy ease on warmer weather - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58125-u-s-grains-corn-soy-ease-on-warmer-weather-agcanada.md) | -0.3% | -0.8% |
| SOY | 2019-09-11 | [U.S. grains: Soybeans, corn ease on crop-boosting weather - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9148-u-s-grains-soybeans-corn-ease-on-crop-boosting-weather-agcanada.md) | +4.0% | +7.1% |
| SOY | 2021-06-17 | [U.S. grains: Corn, soy plunge on weather, broad commodities sell-off - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5762-u-s-grains-corn-soy-plunge-on-weather-broad-commodities-sell-off-agcanada.md) | -4.4% | -0.1% |
| SOY | 2018-07-19 | [ICE weekly outlook: Dry weather keeping canola from more downside - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64127-ice-weekly-outlook-dry-weather-keeping-canola-from-more-downside-agcanada.md) | +2.2% | +1.8% |
| CORN | 2025-12-11 | [La Niña to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely, U.S. forecasters say - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21415-la-nina-to-fade-early-next-year-neutral-pacific-conditions-likely-u-s.md) | +0.5% | +0.6% |
| CORN | 2019-07-02 | [U.S. grains: Corn, soy ease on warmer weather - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58125-u-s-grains-corn-soy-ease-on-warmer-weather-agcanada.md) | +2.8% | +1.7% |
| CORN | 2019-09-11 | [U.S. grains: Soybeans, corn ease on crop-boosting weather - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9148-u-s-grains-soybeans-corn-ease-on-crop-boosting-weather-agcanada.md) | +4.2% | +9.2% |

## Sources

- agcanada.com: https://www.agcanada.com/daily/sixty-six-per-cent-chance-of-la-nina-weather-emerging-u-s-forecaster-says

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.