# Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure

> A Nature Communications study published August 23, 2024 shows that preseason yield forecasts for maize and wheat are skillful at lead times up to a year ahead of harvest for a share of harvested area. The strongest skill is found in Southeast Africa, Southeast Asia, and parts of South and Central Asia, Australia and Southeast South America.

- Date: 2024-09-01 · published 2024-09-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/28671-preseason-maize-and-wheat-yield-forecasts-for-early-warning-of-crop-failure
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Better early warning of crop failure could reduce surprise supply shocks, but the research has no immediate effect on current supply or prices.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2023-12-07 | [Crop Monitor for Early Warning (202312) — GEOGLAM Crop Monitor](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32482-crop-monitor-for-early-warning-202312-geoglam-crop-monitor.md) | -2.3% | +0.0% |
| CORN | 2024-09-05 | [Crop Monitor for Early Warning (202409) — GEOGLAM Crop Monitor](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28230-crop-monitor-for-early-warning-202409-geoglam-crop-monitor.md) | -2.1% | +4.5% |
| CORN | 2024-08-01 | [Crop Monitor for Early Warning (202408) — GEOGLAM Crop Monitor](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28669-crop-monitor-for-early-warning-202408-geoglam-crop-monitor.md) | -0.1% | -3.8% |
| CORN | 2025-07-03 | [Crop Monitor for Early Warning (202507) — GEOGLAM Crop Monitor](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23659-crop-monitor-for-early-warning-202507-geoglam-crop-monitor.md) | -5.1% | -5.0% |
| CORN | 2025-10-02 | [Crop Monitor for Early Warning (202510) — GEOGLAM Crop Monitor](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22310-crop-monitor-for-early-warning-202510-geoglam-crop-monitor.md) | +1.6% | +2.5% |
| WHEAT | 2024-10-03 | [Crop Monitor for Early Warning (202410) — GEOGLAM Crop Monitor](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27777-crop-monitor-for-early-warning-202410-geoglam-crop-monitor.md) | -5.7% | -6.9% |
| WHEAT | 2025-07-03 | [Crop Monitor for Early Warning (202507) — GEOGLAM Crop Monitor](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23659-crop-monitor-for-early-warning-202507-geoglam-crop-monitor.md) | -3.4% | -5.3% |
| WHEAT | 2024-08-01 | [Crop Monitor for Early Warning (202408) — GEOGLAM Crop Monitor](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28669-crop-monitor-for-early-warning-202408-geoglam-crop-monitor.md) | +5.0% | -2.7% |

## Sources

- nature.com: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-51555-8

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.