# BNP Paribas says euro could rise, not fall, if recession hits

> BNP Paribas argues the euro could rise rather than fall if a recession hits, because the dollar's role as a high-yielding currency is weakening. The bank expects the dollar to become more vulnerable as US interest rates come down.

- Date: 2024-09-17 · published 2024-09-17T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/28532-bnp-paribas-says-euro-could-rise-not-fall-if-recession-hits
- Commodities: [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

A forecast of dollar weakness would lower dollar-priced commodity costs for euro buyers, though the effect on prices is indirect and uncertain.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: neutral
- EURUSD: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2026-03-01 | [ECB Has Yet to See Full Impact of Euro Appreciation, Kazaks Says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20806-ecb-has-yet-to-see-full-impact-of-euro-appreciation-kazaks-says.md) | -1.8% | -2.6% |
| EURUSD | 2017-04-27 | [Eurozone recovery gathering pace, says Draghi - BBC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71690-eurozone-recovery-gathering-pace-says-draghi-bbc-news.md) | +0.4% | +2.8% |
| EURUSD | 2025-07-01 | [ECB policymakers set pain threshold for euro rise in weak economy \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23984-ecb-policymakers-set-pain-threshold-for-euro-rise-in-weak-economy-reuters.md) | -0.5% | -2.0% |
| EURUSD | 2025-06-16 | [ECB relaxed about euro strength, risk of too low inflation, de Guindos says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24434-ecb-relaxed-about-euro-strength-risk-of-too-low-inflation-de-guindos-says.md) | -0.2% | +0.5% |
| EURUSD | 2024-07-18 | [European Central Bank holds rates, says domestic price pressures high](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29484-european-central-bank-holds-rates-says-domestic-price-pressures-high.md) | -0.7% | +0.8% |
| DXY | 2021-10-22 | [Powell says inflation risks rising, but Fed can be 'patient' \| AP News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44436-powell-says-inflation-risks-rising-but-fed-can-be-patient-ap-news.md) | -0.2% | +1.4% |
| DXY | 2021-10-19 | [Fed's Waller: 'More aggressive' response may be needed if inflation stays high](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44434-fed-s-waller-more-aggressive-response-may-be-needed-if-inflation-stays-high.md) | -0.3% | +1.0% |
| DXY | 2020-09-11 | [Euro Retreats after ECB Blows Hot and Cold On Currency Strength and 'No Deal' Brexit Risk Builds](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51337-euro-retreats-after-ecb-blows-hot-and-cold-on-currency-strength-and-no-deal.md) | -0.4% | +0.2% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/bnp-paribas-says-euro-could-rise-not-fall-if-recession-hits-2024-09-17/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.